The top 20 Orioles prospects for 2023

The Orioles surprised everyone by making a big leap in quality last season to finish with an 83-79 record. The front office then disappointed a lot of people by not making any significant external additions to bolster that 83-win team this past offseason, apparently waiting another season to see what bubbles up from the farm system to decide where to improve the roster with multi-year contracts.

For the second straight year, the Orioles checked in with the top-rated farm system in MLB Pipeline’s ranking. They were able to do this even with Adley Rutschman’s arrival in MLB last season for a variety of reasons. Two big ones were the meteoric rise of Gunnar Henderson into one of MLB’s top prospects, if not its top prospect entirely, and having the #1 overall pick last year, which the team used on Jackson Holliday. That pick looks pretty good right now.

The performance of the Orioles at the big league level this season is probably going to go a long way towards determining how impatient fans will be to see prospects. If someone struggles in the middle infield, there are three guys in the minors you might rather see. The outfield has Colton Cowser waiting in the wings. And as for the pitching staff, we can hope that both Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will be around soon as well.

Starting today, the four full-season minor league affiliates will all have begun their 2023 seasons. The performance of players at every one of these levels is going to go a long way to determining whether the Orioles are actually able to build a sustainably good big league team.

One question I always have is: Who’s actually worth following? The guy who’s #40 in the system is a prospect, but not one you need to think about too much. Last year, I put together a composite prospect list to answer this question. I’ve done the same for 2023, with four mainstream publications: FanGraphs, The Athletic, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline. In addition, this year’s composite ranking includes the ranking from the prospect-focused Orioles fan podcast On The Verge.

Gunnar Henderson was the unanimous #1 Orioles prospect across all of these lists. Note that as of this writing, Henderson no longer counts as a prospect due to exceeding the 130 at-bat threshold in MLB. He was still #1 at the start of the season, which is what this list reflects. Rodriguez and Holliday round out the top 3 on all lists, though not always in the same order. Eight players are on the top 10 of every list.

#1 - Gunnar Henderson

• Starting level: MLB
• How he got here: 2019 draft, #42 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: He’s already here
• One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):

Henderson performed better in High A than he did in Low A in 2021, moved up to Double A and hit better there than he had in High A, only slowing down when he reached Triple A last year at 21, hitting a measly .288/.390/.504 in half a season there. ... He’s at least an average defender at short, more than good enough to stay at the position, but is at least a 70 defender at third, and could have a Scott Rolen-like upside if he ends up at the hot corner. ... Rolen’s a Hall of Famer, so I don’t throw that comparison around lightly, but Henderson looks like a 25+ homer, high OBP guy who spends fifteen years on the left side of an infield.

#2 - Grayson Rodriguez

• Starting level: Triple-A
• How he got here: 2018 draft, #11 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: He’s here for now
• One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):

Rodriguez has an outstanding four-pitch mix with the chance to have at least three plus pitches in his repertoire. His high-spin fastball touches triple digits, can sit easily in the mid-to-upper 90s deep into starts, and he throws the pitch with plus life. He might have the best changeup in the Minors, a mid-80s off-speed pitch that he tunnels well off his fastball to create deception and hard, late life. He misses bats with his mid-80s slider, and even his fourth pitch, a tighter low-80s curve, has improved.

#3 - Jackson Holliday

• Starting level: Low-A Delmarva
• How he got here: 2022 draft, #1 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Virtually zero
• One exciting paragraph (from FanGraphs):

(Holliday) checks literally every scouting box, and for as much as analytical boxes matter for a high school hitter, he checks those, too. There aren’t many lefty-hitting shortstops with this kind of offensive juice. Holliday’s range, hands, actions and arm are all above average, while his baseball instincts and internal clock are both very good, and season his defensive skill set enough to project him as a long-term shortstop even if he keeps getting bigger. ... He has retained foundational feel for the barrel while coming into all that power, and is one of the higher-ceilinged all-around players in the minors.

#4 - DL Hall

• Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
• How he got here: 2017 draft, #21 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Close to 100%
• One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):

Throughout the 2022 season, Hall continued to show off a four-pitch repertoire and an ability to miss bats. Hall’s fastball touches triple digits and averages over 96.5 mph. His fading mid-80s changeup is a plus offering at times and it elicited a 49 percent miss rate. He still has two separate breaking balls, throwing his upper-80s slider a lot more frequently than his slower curve.

#5 - Colton Cowser

• Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
• How he got here: 2021 draft, #5 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Pretty good
• One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):

A 6-foot-3 left-handed hitter, Cowser combines an outstanding swing, bat speed and good plate discipline to make him a dangerous all-around hitter. He was known more as a hit-over-power type, but the pop is very real and showed up in his first full season. ... While he’s not a burner, Cowser uses his tick-above-average speed well on both sides of the ball. He’s shown he can play solid center field with good instincts, but long term he might be better suited in a corner, where he could be a very good defender with an above-average arm.

#6 - Jordan Westburg

• Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
• How he got here: 2020 draft, #30 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: 50/50 (mostly because he could be traded)
• One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):

Westburg had about as quiet a season as you can have with 69 extra-base hits, moving through shortstop, second, and third base, drawing 70 walks, and hitting .265/.355/.496 between Double A and Triple A. ... He could be a 30-homer guy with a lower batting average, but will probably be most valuable as a .280-ish hitter with 20-25 homers, solid OBPs, and above-average defense at third or average defense at shortstop.

#7 - Joey Ortiz

• Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
• How he got here: 2019 draft, #108 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Pretty good (already on the 40-man roster)
• One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):

He’s a 60 defender at short, with great actions and soft hands, possibly the best defender of the Orioles’ many, many shortstop prospects. ... He rarely whiffs, making contact on about five of every six swings, and doesn’t run a ton of deep counts because he can put enough pitches in play to avoid them. The second-half performance might point to an elite upside; I think the power won’t quite hold up, but he’ll hit for a high average with 30-40 doubles and 10 homers, which makes him a very good regular with that defense.

#8 - Coby Mayo

• Starting level: Double-A Bowie
• How he got here: 2020 draft, #103 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Low
• One exciting paragraph (from FanGraphs):

Mayo has been smoking liners and hitting huge pull-side homers with this swing since he was a high school underclassman ... He has no underlying swing-and-miss issues and his massive 6-foot-5 frame still has room for more strength. Drafted and mostly deployed as a third baseman, Mayo has projected as a right fielder since his draft year because of his size. ... The toolset to profile as a 50 in right is arguably already in place, and there’s a chance Mayo ends up with 70 raw at peak and becomes a star out there.

#9 - Connor Norby

• Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
• How he got here: 2021 draft, #41 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Modest but measurable
• One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):

He can hit, he plays hard, and he seems like he’d knock over his own grandmother just to take an extra base. ... he might be a 20-homer guy who plays adequate defense at second and can move to the outfield corners, with strong batting averages and raves from teammates and coaches. He’s a solid regular, a “just missed the just missed list” guy, and someone I really believe strongly will succeed.

#10 - Heston Kjerstad

• Starting level: Double-A Bowie
• How he got here: 2020 draft, #2 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Unlikely but not unimaginable
• One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):

(Kjerstad) started to show that his left-handed power bat has the chance to have an impact at this level. There’s strength and bat speed and even though there’s some swing-and-miss that’s still a part of his game that might always make him more power-over-hit, he showed a willingness to work counts and take walks as well as the ability to punish the baseball. ... Defensively, Kjerstad fits nicely into an outfield corner, with a strong arm that works in right field.

#11 - Dylan Beavers

• Starting level: High-A Aberdeen
• How he got here: 2022 draft, #33 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Zero
• One exciting paragraph (from FanGraphs):

At a strapping and angular 6-foot-4, Beavers body comps to Christian Yelich, and his swing (especially the way his back elbow stays tucked into his body during his load) is similar to Yelich’s as well. He generates incredible power across a short distance, needing just a little bat wrap to get his barrel moving with extra-base force. ... If his swing can be dialed in, he could break out in a big way, as he has the ability to hit 30 bombs and play great corner outfield defense.

#12 - Cade Povich

• Starting level: Double-A Bowie
• How he got here: Jorge López trade, July 2022
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: In the realm of possibility
• One exciting paragraph (from FanGraphs):

Of the non-Top 100 pitching prospects in this system, Povich is the one with the best chance to take a leap and become a mid-rotation option on a contender. His wiry, broad-shouldered build and mechanical fluidity are both characteristics associated with innings-eaters, and with pitchers who continue to refine their secondary stuff and maybe even add velocity deeper into their 20s. ... He’s tracking like a no. 4/5 starter who still has a chance to pop above that.

#13 - Jud Fabian

• Starting level: High-A Aberdeen
• How he got here: 2022 draft, #67 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Zero
• One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):

(Fabian) generates legit bat speed and power from the right side of the plate, connecting for 44 homers over his final two years in college. ... He’s shown he is capable of making more consistent contact without sacrificing power at times, including during his 2022 debut (19-21 BB/K ratio). ... His ability to read the ball off the bat and run efficient routes points to a long-term future in center field.

#14 - Samuel Basallo

• Starting level: Low-A Delmarva
• How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2021
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Zero
• One exciting paragraph (from FanGraphs):

Basallo also has so much power, an incredible amount for an 18-year-old catching prospect, that he’ll be an impact player if he can continue to develop as a catcher even if he ends up with a 40 hit tool. ... He can generate extra-base power with just a flick of his wrist and his max-effort swings are the stuff of Paul Bunyan. There is already a terrifying amount of raw power here and enough feel to hit (especially low pitches) to weaponize it against rookie-level arms.

#15 - Seth Johnson

• Starting level: Injured list (Tommy John surgery)
• How he got here: Trey Mancini trade, July 2022
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Zero
• One exciting paragraph (from FanGraphs):

Johnson has big ceiling and gives the Orioles a shot to develop an impact pitcher from within ... Healthy Johnson sits 95-97 mph and has a pair of power breakers: an upper-70s curveball and a mid-80s cutter/slider. His changeup has improved since signing, too.

#16 - Max Wagner

• Starting level: High-A Aberdeen
• How he got here: 2022 draft, #42 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Zero
• One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):

He’s a right-handed hitter who made significant improvements to his approach in college, becoming better equipped against breaking balls, particularly with two strikes. ... Wagner is considered a capable defender at third base with decent range, solid arm strength and good body control.

#17 - Hudson Haskin

• Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
• How he got here: 2020 draft, #39 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Small
• One exciting paragraph (from MLB Pipeline):

Haskin has always managed the strike zone well and barreled balls consistently; with that better leverage, the power he used to flash showed up more regularly in 2022. ... In addition to that offensive potential, Haskin’s best tools are his glove and his speed ... His athletic skillset suggests he will be able to remain in center field long term, giving Haskin the ceiling of a big league regular who can do a little bit of everything offensively.

#18 (tied) - Drew Rom

• Starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
• How he got here: 2018 draft, #115 overall
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: 50/50
• One exciting paragraph (from FanGraphs):

Rom’s delivery is effortless, he can manipulate his fastball’s shape, and he consistently commands his slider to his glove side. There are lots of starter elements here, and Rom has struck out batters at an impressive rate up and down the minor leagues.

#18 (tied) - Chayce McDermott

• Starting level: Double-A Bowie
• How he got here: Trey Mancini trade, July 2022
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Highly unlikely
• One exciting paragraph (from ):

McDermott throws hard, but struggles with control. His fastball reaches the high-90s and operates in the mid-90s deep into games, with good carry up in the zone. ... He has two promising secondary pitches, with more feel for the low-80s slider than his mid-70s curve at this point. ... he could still grow into an upside reliever given his ability to miss bats.

#20 - Frederick Bencosme

• Starting level: High-A Aberdeen
• How he got here: International amateur signing, August 2020
• Chance of seeing on the Orioles this year: Zero
• One exciting paragraph (from The Athletic):

The Orioles signed Bencosme as an international free agent in August of 2020, when he was already 17, for almost no bonus, and all he’s done since is hit. He puts everything in play, with a lot of line drives, and just a 12.4 percent strikeout rate with nearly as many walks (27 to 31 Ks). ... he has a knack for getting the bat to the ball that I wouldn’t downplay.

The next ten names and where to find them

21. Luis Almeyda (possibly Florida Complex League)
22. Justin Armbruester (Double-A Bowie)
T-23. John Rhodes (Double-A Bowie)
T-23. César Prieto (Double-A Bowie)
25. Noah Denoyer (Triple-A Norfolk)
26. Leandro Arias (possibly Florida Complex League)
T-27. Braylin Tavera (possibly Florida Complex League)
T-27. Carter Young (Low-A Delmarva)
29. Juan Nunez (Low-A Delmarva)
T-30. Carter Baumler (Low-A Delmarva)
T-30. Kade Strowd (Double-A Bowie)
T-30. Reed Trimble (High-A Aberdeen)

Some trends for the top 20: The top 11 players on this ranking all arrived by the draft. Three of the top 20 were acquired in trade, with two more being international amateur signings. One thing that will be interesting to see over the next couple of years is how the makeup of where the Orioles got their top prospects changes.

Starting this draft, the team will not be picking in the top 5 - hopefully not for some time to come. They will also hopefully be less likely to trade away veterans for prospects in July. There will be more importance on developing later draft picks and in starting to turn some of their international signings - million dollar bonuses and otherwise - into useful prospects.

It’s also going to be interesting to see if they reach a point where several of these players end up as trade bait. So far, the Orioles have only made one prospect-for-player trade, when they sent Darell Hernaiz to Oakland for Cole Irvin.