Orioles-White Sox series preview: In need of a rapid bounce-back

Before the Orioles left Baltimore on Sunday, you could have looked at these seven games and, considering who the opponents were, feel like even a 4-3 road trip might be disappointing. Now, that’s the best that the O’s can possibly do, and even that outcome is not unlikely. Pulling off the four-game sweep - the mop, as the gentlemen of Cespedes Family BBQ like to say - is hard against any team, even one that’s as bad as the White Sox are. These guys got mopped by both the Royals and Twins in April so maybe they’re due for another.

This is a disaster area of a team. They have the worst batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage of any AL team. As you would expect to go along with that fact, they’ve scored the fewest runs, averaging just 2.86 runs per game for the season. Home runs? Yep, they’re at the bottom of that, too. What’s got to be dire for a White Sox fan is that there’s not even many guys here who you could think would get traded for a nice return that jump-starts a rebuild. The best trade candidate they’ve got, Luis Robert Jr., has been hurt since early April.

The Orioles’ own offensive performance has been disappointing this month. They are OPSing just .681 as a team, a drop of 81 points compared to what they did a month ago. For May, the O’s are averaging four runs per game. And still the White Sox are much worse, with a .623 combined OPS for the month and fewer than three runs per game scored.

The pitchers have been just as bad, overall. The 4.64 team ERA is also the worst of any AL team. This is not to say that every pitcher on the team is part of the comical struggle. Erick Fedde and Garrett Crochet, the starting pitchers lined up for Saturday and Sunday, have been worth 2.2 and 1.8 bWAR, respectively. That duo would fit right in on any good team, including the Orioles, whose best pitcher by WAR is Corbin Burnes at 1.3.

In contrast to the Cardinals, who also had a pitching staff that had a bad ERA to date, the White Sox have not gotten rid of their most suspect pitchers who’ve been giving up all of the runs. Two guys are regulars in the rotation with an ERA over 5, and three relievers are kicking around in the bullpen with ERAs of 4.91 or higher. If this group of guys doesn’t help the Orioles break out of their month-long slump, or at least provide a temporary interruption of it, there are going to be some tough things to figure out to keep the O’s on the path to 2024 success.

Game 1 - Thursday, 7:40 ET

• BAL starter: Grayson Rodriguez - 7 GS, 3.15 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.300 WHIP
• CHW starter: Mike Clevinger - 3 GS, 5.56 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 1.853 WHIP

After Rodriguez spent time on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, I was anxious about how he’d look in his return. I didn’t think the Orioles decision to have him return without making a rehab start would work out. He gave up just one hit in six shutout innings against the Mariners. Pretty good! Three walks is a higher number than we might like, but hey, it was a fine return.

Other than one stinker against the Angels last month, Rodriguez is having an excellent season. I don’t want to be a broken record in this article here but the White Sox offense is bad and I will be bummed if any of the starting pitchers do badly against them!

Clevinger has pitched just 11.1 innings across three games since joining the White Sox roster; he signed with them after the regular season had already begun. He pitched here last year too, putting up a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts. That’s not bad. He’s been bad so far in 2024 but it’s a small sample size and maybe he’s “due” for better. I hope that he’s not due for better. What I want has no bearing over what happens in Orioles games, unfortunately.

Game 2 - Friday, 7:40 ET

Note: This is an Apple+ TV broadcast. It will not be on TV or streaming anywhere else. Radio broadcasts will be available as usual.

• BAL starter: Corbin Burnes - 10 GS, 2.56 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.039 WHIP
• CHW starter: Chris Flexen - 10 G/8 GS, 5.48 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.353 WHIP

Here at the end of May, I’m still amazed that Corbin Burnes is an Oriole. I feel this way even though it seems pretty clear that we’re not getting CORBIN BURNES, the version of the guy who won the Cy Young award three years ago. He’s not striking out over 35% of batters faced - more like 25% - and he’s not trending towards a 200+ inning season like he had two years ago. What he is doing is holding batters to a .598 OPS overall - and just .509 when pitching away from Camden Yards. Those are some ace-level results.

Flexen: Not ace-level results. Statcast data doesn’t suggest he should be getting ace-level results, either - though his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.37 is much closer to acceptable than his actual ERA. He doesn’t make batters miss very often, and he doesn’t make them put it on the ground very often either. These are things that might lead to a bad night for him against the Orioles offense. Unless, you know, they have one of their infuriating games. Of which they’ve had too many in May.

Game 3 - Saturday, 2:10 ET

• BAL starter: Dean Kremer - 9 GS, 4.32 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.120 WHIP
• CHW starter: Erick Fedde - 10 GS, 3.10 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.086 WHIP

Orioles fans over the last few years are well acquainted with games where one team or the other has a big “on paper” starting pitching matchup and the outcome of the game doesn’t match what you would have guessed before it started. It’s no guarantee! Having made that comment, this is notable as the one game this series where the White Sox starting pitcher is doing a lot better than the O’s starting pitcher so far this year.

Kremer has had two straight clunkers. The difference between unearned runs and earned runs meant his May 12 start against the Diamondbacks (5.2 IP, 6 R, 3 ER) didn’t inflate his ERA too much, but he still walked four guys even as he struck out ten. Last time out against the Cardinals, Kremer was just bad, giving up five runs in only four innings - still long enough to allow six hits and three walks. Our Alex Church wrote yesterday about how the six-man rotation could prove to be an audition for whether Kremer sticks as a starter.

Fedde’s performance so far this season is not something that you would have expected based on his career to date. Six years with the Nationals, with Fedde in the rotation much more often than not, wrapped up with a 5.41 ERA. He had a 5+ ERA in 2021 and 2022 and then went to South Korea, which seems to have gone well for him. That led to a two-year $15 million contract he signed with Chicago - probably making him an attractive trade piece in two months time.

With a BABIP of .250 compared to a league average of .287, Fedde is almost definitely benefiting from some batted ball luck. He’s given up some dingers. The Orioles are good at hitting the ball hard. Maybe that will work out in this one.

Game 4 - Sunday, 2:10 ET

• BAL starter: Kyle Bradish - 4 GS, 2.41 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 1.232 WHIP
• CHW starter: Garrett Crochet - 11 GS, 3.75 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 0.954 WHIP

Bradish has yet to pitch beyond five innings in his four starts so far this season. However, that’s only because of the arrival of rain in St. Louis that knocked him out of his last start - he’d only thrown 74 pitches through five innings and was probably headed for six. It cannot be overstated how much the White Sox lineup really sucks, so hopefully that means Bradish can drop the dominant start that he was prevented from doing on Tuesday.

Crochet is the only lefty starting pitcher who is scheduled to face the Orioles in this series. Will that mean playing time for Kyle Stowers in the three games before this one? Who knows. In his age 25 season, Chicago has put Crochet into the rotation after 72 career relief appearances. It’s going well! I’m impressed by anybody to keep the WHIP under 1 through a third of the season. The 11.5 K/9 is also impressive.

Maybe some BABIP luck here too (.258). Crochet doesn’t walk too many people either (2.0 BB/9) but, since the Orioles don’t walk much as a team, perhaps that will work in their favor.

**

A person shouldn’t get too carried away about the importance of some games in May. There’s a lot of baseball left, regardless of what happens over the course of today and this weekend. It’s sure not going to feel good if the Orioles can’t pick themselves up after a disappointing series in St. Louis and grab the “easy” wins against a team that’s been down at the bottom of the league for two years running.