Camden Chat: All Posts by Alex ChurchPut a bird on it!https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48285/camden-fave.png2024-03-25T09:00:00-04:00https://www.camdenchat.com/authors/alex-church/rss2024-03-25T09:00:00-04:002024-03-25T09:00:00-04:00Orioles positional preview: Rotation
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<figcaption>Corbin Burnes gets the start on Opening Day for the Orioles. | Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>New arrival Corbin Burnes will anchor a rotation hoping to see Kyle Bradish and John Means return in the first half of the season. </p> <p id="n9XUcy">The Orioles blew by projections in almost every facet last season, and the rotation was no exception. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez developed into frontline starters, and veteran Kyle Gibson performed admirably while mentoring Baltimore’s young arms. Tyler Wells shined in the first half before running out of gas, and Dean Kremer flourished in a make or break type of season. </p>
<p id="jq4KFb">Of course, it wasn’t all roses on the mound. Rodriguez failed to make the Opening Day roster and struggled during his first stint with the team. Offseason acquisition Cole Irvin fell short of expectations, and trade deadline arrival Jack Flaherty disappointed for the duration of the second half. </p>
<p id="TJbJvH">Mike Elias rolled the dice with Irvin and Flaherty, but he made what should be a “sure thing” type of move last month. Baltimore brought in Corbin Burnes to anchor a rotation filled with talent. The move became even more significant after the Orioles announced a pair of presumed starters would miss the beginning of the season. </p>
<h4 id="sG2z9w">The New Ace on the Block</h4>
<p id="4dUTNn">Burnes arrived in Baltimore with a Cy Young already under his belt. The former Brewer earned the award in 2021 after leading the National League with a 2.43 ERA and 1.63 FIP. He led the NL with 243 strikeouts in 2022, and posted a league best 1.069 WHIP as a starter last season. He’s unquestionably one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he represented the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> in the last three Midsummer Classics.</p>
<p id="a7NA16">Burnes is the <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/20/24105953/corbin-burnes-orioles-starting-rotation-2024">type of pitcher that Orioles fans have wanted for years.</a> The Orioles surrendered DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and a first round pick for the righty despite his pending free agency in 2025. Burnes will aim to generate as much buzz as possible heading into the offseason, while the Birds hope to ride him deep into the postseason. Who knows, maybe the new ownership group will pony up for a new contract this winter. </p>
<h4 id="02lQH8">The Injured Starters </h4>
<p id="VLZ5bc">Bradish would have had a case to start on Opening Day after finishing fourth in AL Cy Young voting last season. Baltimore announced on the first day of spring training that Bradish would begin the season on the injured list with a sprained UCL. The simple mention of those three letters immediately generated concerns, but the righty has dodged Tommy John surgery to this point. </p>
<p id="mdqztx">Bradish received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the injury, and the Orioles shared that initial results were positive. Elias said last week that Bradish remained on track. The 27-year-old will likely need at least a month to ramp up after returning to his baseline, but Memorial Day remains a reasonable target if he does not face a setback. </p>
<p id="WkrhrL">John Means finally returned last September after undergoing Tommy John in 2022. The lefty made four appearances but missed the ALDS with elbow soreness. Means complained of arm fatigue during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, so the Orioles are doing everything they can to set Means up for success this year. </p>
<p id="TKpmny">Baltimore held Means back this spring in an effort to provide extra rest. Elias recently told reporters that he expects Means and Bradish to pitch in “the front end of the season.” </p>
<h4 id="zCMawa">The Best of the Rest </h4>
<p id="BW9oWH">With respect to Bradish, Rodriguez may hold the greatest long-term upside of the bunch. The 24-year-old made the most of his time in Triple-A last season and returned to the big leagues ready to pitch. He posted a 5-2 record, 2.48 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in the second half. Rodriguez struggled in his first postseason start, but it’s a safe bet that the flame thrower will be ready to perform this October. </p>
<p id="j7YUP3">Kremer posted an impressive 13-5 record and a 4.12 ERA over 172.2 innings last season. His 100 ERA+ was indicative of a completely average starting pitcher. That’s more than fine for a fifth starter, but the Orioles will need Kremer’s best while Bradish and Means work toward a return. </p>
<p id="klU9EB">Tyler Wells gave his best during the first half with a 3.18 ERA over 104.1 innings. Wells hit a wall last season, and he suffered a pair of injuries during the second half of 2022. The former Rule 5 pick has consistently done whatever he can to help the team, but he’ll need a fresh arm to complement his healthy attitude in 2024. Originally destined for the bullpen, Wells will have an opportunity to prove he can hang in the rotation for the duration of the season. </p>
<p id="SkGRFe">Irvin will get another crack at the rotation after starting 12 games last year. His numbers improved as a swingman in the second half, but he’s another guy with a golden opportunity this spring. Irvin is out of minor league options and will likely return to a long-relief role if he struggles in the rotation. </p>
<h4 id="LbY4p6">The Prospects </h4>
<p id="N4D1Bv">Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich, Seth Johnson and Justin Armbruester could all debut at some point this season. Brandon Hyde referred to McDermott and Povich as “a phone call away” after the pair were optioned to minor league camp in Sarasota. </p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/25/24109826/baltimore-orioles-positional-preview-rotation-burnes-rodriguez-wells-kremer-burnes-bradish-meansAlex Church2024-03-20T11:00:00-04:002024-03-20T11:00:00-04:00John Means remains on track to bolster Orioles rotation
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<figcaption>Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A healthy John Means hopes to contribute for the Orioles by the end of April.</p> <p id="nvufoU">With the season well within reach, the Orioles still have a plethora of talented position players battling it out for a precious spot on the 26-man roster. Guys like Kye Stowers and Coby Mayo are doing their best to make things difficult on Mike Elias and the other decision makers. At this point, the biggest “flaw” with Baltimore’s offense is that they do not have a place for all these talented hitters. </p>
<p id="kWuHsZ">The same can't quite be said for the starting rotation. Kyle Bradish <a href="https://twitter.com/afkostka/status/1770122279139090592">may or may not be throwing breaking balls </a>now, but the 27-year-old will definitely begin the season on the injured list. Meanwhile, John Means told Foul Territory that he’s aiming to return by late April. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Hopefully late April"<a href="https://twitter.com/JMeans25?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JMeans25</a> talks about his timetable for a return to the <a href="https://twitter.com/Orioles?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Orioles</a> rotation, and discusses how the team's strength motivates him to return "soon".<br><br>▶️ <a href="https://t.co/n34phlH3JK">https://t.co/n34phlH3JK</a> <a href="https://t.co/na1411ycJj">pic.twitter.com/na1411ycJj</a></p>— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/FoulTerritoryTV/status/1770123642707317023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2024</a>
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<p id="A24bOx">The biggest takeaway, aside from the fact that A.J. Pierzynski really didn’t need to rub it in that much, is that Means remains on track. The lefty has thrown multiple live batting practice sessions and anticipates jumping into rehab starts soon. </p>
<p id="JnR0IX">The Orioles never pointed to a specific injury with Means. The late April timetable fits the narrative of Baltimore simply holding back the former All Star to provide him extra rest before the season. </p>
<p id="HMIslg">Means missed the postseason roster after a September return last season. It’s easy to process a hiccup or two after Tommy John surgery, but 2023 was not an isolated incident. Means complained of shoulder fatigue at different points in 2020 and 2021. </p>
<p id="srcom">No player is ever guaranteed to stay healthy. Sure, certain guys seem to get injured more than others, but it’s not like Means can’t contribute. The Orioles understand the value the lefty can bring and are doing what they can to provide the 30-year-old his best chance to be successful. </p>
<p id="l6yAfB">The no-hitter sticks out, but Means holds an impressive 3.74 ERA and 1.060 WHIP over 69 career starts. He pitched to contact for the large part of his four outings last season, but he quickly reminded everyone the type of pitcher he can be. Means limited Cleveland to just one hit in 7.1 innings, and he worked into the seventh inning against Boston during his final start of the year. </p>
<p id="QGMPGI">The arrival of Corbin Burnes and the potential of Grayson Rodriguez have rightfully dominated rotation dreams this season. Means may be dragging his bag to the backfields in Sarasota right now, but he could help carry Baltimore to the finish line in October. </p>
<p id="fhc0tR">Means quickly demonstrated control with his four pitch mix as opponents batted just .159 over four games. He showed off his patented changeup with great success, and nobody managed a hit against his slider. </p>
<p id="1yCh3r">Means’s return remains heightened as long as the Orioles stay away from top free agents. Baltimore <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/18/24104501/baltimore-orioles-blake-snell-jordan-montgomery-why-not-2024">has not been linked to Jordan Montgomery</a>, and the O’s appear content to role with the bunch they have in Sarasota.</p>
<p id="xS4Ceg">Tyler Wells has earned the benefit out of the doubt after an impressive first half last season. He suffered a severe case of arm fatigue—worse than Means experienced early in his career—but managed to contribute out of the bullpen at the end of the year. </p>
<p id="bwkiyE">Cole Irvin has spiked the concern meter with a pair of troubling outings this spring. Irvin should serve as a severely needed lefty with Means sidelined, but the former A’s hurler failed an early rotation test in 2023. He fared better working out of the bullpen last season, but he could be the first to go once Means or Bradish are cleared to pitch. </p>
<p id="jZJdCM">There are plenty of good vibes in Birdland right now, but it’s always difficult to remain optimistic with arm injuries. Means or Bradish could experience a setback at any point, but the Orioles appear content to weather the storm for now. </p>
<p id="vqOl9B">Bradish could return to the Cy Young standings, or he could experience a slight regression after a career year. Either way, the arrival of a healthy Means should help push a star-studded rotation over the top.</p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/20/24106316/baltimore-orioles-john-means-return-injury-rehabAlex Church2024-03-14T09:00:00-04:002024-03-14T09:00:00-04:00Orioles 2024 preseason projections: Corbin Burnes
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aR_lUQHeSEqegJUitlL3RRIsP-A=/0x0:3872x2581/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73206373/usa_today_22606593.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Can the Orioles’ recently acquired ace live up to the projections and expectations?</p> <p id="BVHhke">The Orioles became a contender by drafting well, acquiring young players, and developing talent from within. The club made a few low-risk trade and free agent acquisitions, but Mike Elias had yet to make a true splash move before this offseason. That all changed when the Orioles sent DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and the 34th pick to Milwaukee in exchange for Corbin Burnes.</p>
<p id="uWa7cf">The Orioles acquired Burnes during one of the most exciting offseason weeks in team history. The one-two punch of a potential ownership change and the Burnes deal ignited a fan base already riding high after a 101-win season. </p>
<p id="hQNrmE">The deal was analyzed and almost unanimously applauded by fans and media members. Burnes immediately became the staff ace of a rotation that already featured a rising star in Grayson Rodriguez and the fourth-place finisher in the AL Cy Young Award in 2023. Unfortunately, the outlook changed once spring training got underway. </p>
<p id="zal7fc">The Orioles announced that Kyle Bradish would miss at least the start of the regular season with a sprained UCL. In addition, the club elected to hold back John Means in an effort to increase the odds of a healthy 2024. The rotation lost two talented arms, while Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin jumped from projected depth to potential starters. </p>
<p id="mO9LFJ">It’s unclear how long Bradish and Means will need to recover, but the loss of Bradish all but clinched a decision the club announced earlier this week. Corbin Burnes will serve as the Opening Day starter at Camden Yards. </p>
<p id="hzp3ou">So what does a true staff ace look like? Corbin Burnes holds a 45-27 record, a 3.26 ERA, a 1.055 WHIP over 106 career starts. He won the NL Cy Young in 2021 and has been named an All Star during each of the last three seasons. </p>
<p id="JyeTCK">Burnes posted a minuscule 2.43 ERA and a ridiculous 1.63 FIP during his Cy Young campaign. He led the National League in strikeouts during 2022 with 243, and topped NL starters with a 1.069 WHIP in 2023. </p>
<h4 id="21fqBe">ZiPS Projections</h4>
<p id="wb7r44">ZiPS projects Burnes to post a 10-7 record and a 3.46 ERA over 179 innings. ZiPS calls for a 4.0 WAR season with 191 strikeouts and only 16 home runs allowed. If they played the games on paper, Burnes would hold a 3.34 FIP, a 1.120 WHIP, and an 18.6% K/B ratio. </p>
<p id="QqaDK5">Burnes struck out an even 200 last season while fanning 243 back in 2022. He punched out 234 during the Cy Young campaign and struck out 88 batters in just 59.2 innings during the COVID shortened season. </p>
<p id="Ei3qyP">Burnes throws his cutter 55% of the time while mixing in four other pitches. He notched a 22.1% Whiff Rate with the cutter and a whopping 49% with his curveball last season. Batters whiffed 43.3 percent of the time on the slider and 30% against the changeup. Long story short, the guy can punch hitters out with four pitches. </p>
<p id="AppuIg">The Birds believe that Burnes can lead the staff while Bradish and Means work toward a return. The bullpen picture looks slightly less clear without Hall and All-Star closer Félix Bautista, and relief pitchers could be forced into early action if the back of the rotation struggles.</p>
<p id="6brhEv">Burnes will become a free agent after this season, so the Orioles need to make this year count. In the same vein, Burnes should be extremely motivated to cash in during his walk year. Brandon Hyde will be forced to monitor Bradish and Means, but he shouldn’t limit Burnes. The free-agent-to-be will have an opportunity to work deep into games every fifth day. </p>
<p id="QgBmvA">Expectations are high, but give this one some thought. Do you think Burnes will exceed his ZiPS projected 200 strikeouts in 2024? Give your prediction for the #stafface below.</p>
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https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/14/24099101/orioles-2024-preseason-projections-corbin-burnes-strikeoutsAlex Church2024-03-06T10:00:00-05:002024-03-06T10:00:00-05:00Examining the Orioles’ dominant record and other spring observations
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UmeXRL5tDYMLERa3ZuXJKXZLFys=/0x0:6000x4000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73186189/usa_today_22673640.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>What does Baltimore’s dominant record say about the Birds? Can Jorge Mateo hang in the outfield, and how quickly can we fire up the Dillon Tate hype train?</p> <p id="H4t3K5">A team’s win/loss record during spring training is rarely an indicator of future success. Teams play split squad games, stars rarely travel, and pitchers place less emphasis on keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Still, it’s always more fun to watch your team win games compared to the alternative. </p>
<p id="8fSdnt">The Orioles began today with the best spring record in the majors at 10-2. Again, the mark should not be used to project the future, but it’s not completely without meaning. </p>
<p id="CiRv1D">Baltimore holds the highest ranked farm system in baseball. Top prospects like Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo are all attempting to break camp with the team, while players like Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna fight for the final roster spot. Kolten Wong, Nick Maton and Tyler Nevin all want another taste in the bigs, as do Bryan Baker, Keegan Akin and several other relievers jockeying for position. </p>
<p id="dR48i4">The Orioles are winning spring training games because of their immense roster depth. Holliday, Cowser, Mayo and Heston Kjerstad have all played deep into games, while Stowers and McKenna have replaced starters in several contests. These aren’t the typical roster fillers that teams borrow from minor league camp—the Orioles have an extended roster of guys that can play.</p>
<p id="OIkByF">I spent the weekend in Sarasota and Bradenton watching the Orioles take on the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> and Pirates. Marcus Stroman kept the Orioles off the board early Saturday afternoon, but Baltimore pounced on former Cleveland pitcher Cody Morris. Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle struck in the middle innings, but Stowers came off the bench to break the game open with a two-run blast. </p>
<p id="am9I3G">Projected starter Cole Irvin did not allow a run, but neither did bullpen candidates Julio Teherán, Dillon Tate, Nick Vespi, or Wandisson Charles. Tate looked especially crisp with a quick inning that passed the eye test for health and talent. </p>
<p id="muJQ5C">The Orioles traveled to Bradenton on Sunday to face several Pittsburgh regulars. Grayson Rodriguez struggled early, but Baker, Danny Coulombe, Ryan Watson, Cade Povich and <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/5/24091065/orioles-40-man-roster-jonathan-heasley">recent 40-man addition Jonathan Heasley</a> all kept Baltimore in the game. </p>
<p id="0fUnKR">Stowers, Kjerstad and Connor Norby came off the bench before TT Bowens blasted a go-ahead three-run homer in the top of the ninth. The Orioles, even on the road, featured the more skilled roster. The overwhelming talent turned another coin flip game into Baltimore’s favor. </p>
<p id="eYNVyj">The Orioles’ embarrassment of riches showed up throughout the weekend. Ramón Urías made multiple Gold-Glove caliber plays at third base. Stowers continued to mash, and James McCann reminded fans why there’s no need for a backup catcher competition this spring. </p>
<p id="uiEJAK">Baltimore’s defensive versatility was on full display with Jordan Westburg playing short and Jorge Mateo manning center field. Baltimore has yet to tip its hand with Mateo playing center, but neither player looked out of place on Sunday. Mateo will never call center field his primary position, but he has 35 career starts in the outfield. The 28-year-old can use his speed and defensive instincts to help offset Baltimore’s roster crunch if needed. </p>
<p id="zPhjjB">Teherán made his first case for a roster spot with Kyle Bradish and John Means sidelined, but Tate stole the show in my eyes. The former Yankee prospect fired his sinker at 94 MPH and retired the three batters he faced. He generated a ground ball from JC Escarra, struck out Carlos Tavarez on three pitches, and used the sinker again for another weak grounder.</p>
<p id="8qzHPC">Tate could provide a significant boost to a club looking to fill a massive void in the bullpen. The Orioles shouldn’t bank on the 29-year-old in the late innings quite yet, but it only took one inning for Tate to remind me and others in attendance that he can be a difference maker. </p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/6/24091790/orioles-spring-training-record-jorge-mateo-dillon-tateAlex Church2024-03-05T09:00:00-05:002024-03-05T09:00:00-05:002024 Orioles preseason projections: Jordan Westburg
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<figcaption>Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Will Jordan Westburg’s platoon numbers even out in 2024?</p> <p id="EXTorn"><em>Over the next few weeks, Camden Chat writers will be looking at the projected performance for most of the expected regulars on the Orioles roster. We’ll be sizing up what would have to go right for players to beat the projections, or go wrong for players to fail to live up to them, and polling readers for each player.</em></p>
<p id="1PWRjR">Jordan Westburg debuted at the end of June and immediately looked the part of a bonafide major leaguer. He went 5-for-12 in his first three games and quickly carved out a role in a crowded infield. </p>
<p id="AVz1IY">The former first-round pick failed to match fellow prospect Gunnar Henderson’s meteoric rise, but Westburg earned every promotion that he received. He slashed .295/.372/.567 over 67 games at Norfolk in 2023 before joining the Orioles. </p>
<p id="FedIFd">Baltimore provided Westburg opportunities at both second and third base. The righty eventually fell into a platoon with veteran second baseman Adam Frazier. Westburg made 50 appearances at second and 29 at third base over the course of last season. </p>
<p id="pcmic0">Westburg forced his way into the lineup by slashing .284/.354/.432 against left-handed pitchers. He posted a respectable .246/.288/.388 line against righties, but Brandon Hyde wanted to keep Frazier in the lineup from time to time. </p>
<p id="91OHQm">Westburg started 33 games at shortstop for the Tides in 2023 but never played the position in Baltimore. Henderson and Jorge Mateo appear to have the position locked up once again, and Jackson Holliday will factor in at some point, but it’s nice to have another player with the ability to slide in when needed. Westburg looked comfortable at the position earlier in the week during a spring training game in Bradenton. </p>
<p id="IL3bCR">Defensive versatility always helps, but there are only so many at bats to go around. Henderson, Mateo, Ramón Urías, Kolten Wong, Jackson Holliday and others are all competing for infield spots on the Opening Day roster. Westburg has options remaining, but his place on the roster appears safe for now. Still, Westburg could go from competing with Frazier to battling one of the highest rated prospects in recent memory. </p>
<p id="UgnmJU">Westburg appears set to play most days while splitting time between second and third base. ZiPS projects the 25-year-old to play 129 games while slashing .249/.317/.420. Does that sound right to you?</p>
<h4 id="76VpRE">The case for the over</h4>
<p id="eyTpgA">Westburg’s .260/.311/.404 line was good for a 100 OPS+ and a 97 wRC+ last season. Essentially, he performed as a league average hitter in his first 314 plate appearances. Shouldn’t he be able to take a step forward after getting some big league games under his belt?</p>
<p id="vpo4e6">The Mississippi State product needs his success against lefties to continue, but he’s capable of better numbers when facing right-handed pitching. Westburg posted an .890 OPS against righties at Triple-A last season and an .886 OPS against right-handers in 2022. </p>
<p id="XgZP6k">The numbers point to a boost against righties which would greatly improve his overall line.</p>
<h4 id="EOxNow">The case for the under</h4>
<p id="8UFLpu">The same numbers point to a regression against southpaws. Westburg posted a .732 OPS against lefties at Norfolk last season and a .767 OPS in 2022. The Orioles will likely provide the utility man an opportunity to duplicate his success from last season, which could lead to a disadvantageous platoon setup for the sophomore. </p>
<p id="M5ktHT">Westburg could face a short leash with all the infield competition. He still has three minor league options remaining while Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo are fresh out. Westburg could ride the Norfolk shuttle if the Orioles fail to make a trade. It’s never clear how great of an impact instability can have on hitters, but it’s rarely a credit for success. </p>
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https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/5/24090650/orioles-projections-2024-jordan-westburg-zipsAlex Church2024-02-28T10:00:00-05:002024-02-28T10:00:00-05:00Know Your Orioles 40-man: Kaleb Ort
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<figcaption>Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Orioles will look to help Ort pair another effective pitch with his high 90s fastball.</p> <p id="YkAeZN"><strong>How he got here: </strong>Acquired from the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Philadelphia Phillies</a> for cash considerations 2/19/2024</p>
<p id="lasLae">Kaleb Ort spent time with the Mariners, Marlins, and the Phillies before ending up in Baltimore this winter. For some, that’s a career. For Ort, it’s an offseason. The 32-year-old never pitched for Seattle, Miami or Philadelphia, but all three organizations had at least some interest in bringing Ort to camp this spring. </p>
<p id="lAAmpH">Every year fringe players find themselves jumping from team to team as organizations tinker with their 40-man roster. These players are often flawed but possess at least one skill that clubs feel they can maximize. For Ort, it’s the four-seam fastball.</p>
<p id="vT1XsD">Ort ranks in 80th percentile for fastball velocity. He averages 96 MPH with a heater that can approach triple digits. The righty made 47 appearances with the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> over the last three years while primarily working in relief. </p>
<p id="8HCVGv">Ort posted a 6.26 ERA and 1.565 WHIP over 21 games last season. He posted similar MLB numbers in 2022 but fared much better at Triple-A over the last two seasons. Ort pitched to a 1.54 ERA over 13 games at Worcester in 2023.</p>
<p id="v0qLSR">Minor league hitters can struggle to pick up an upper 90s fastball. Unfortunately for Ort, big leaguers can time up almost any pitch when they see it enough. <a href="https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-bullpen-relief-pitcher-kaleb-ort-cutter-JGWJCROACNHLTCP4NXAI3Z4UCM/">The Baltimore Banner</a> noted last week that Ort used his fastball at a 72% clip last season. It’s a number Ort knows he must reduce to sustain success in the future.</p>
<p id="7FgkPa">Andy Kostka reported that Ort hoped to introduce a cutter at a higher rate this season. <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-duquette-doesnt-like-cutters/">Dan Duquette isn’t walking through that door</a>, and the new-age Orioles likely have a template for Ort to follow. </p>
<p id="1Fvlku">Ort could find himself back on the waiver wire at any point, but he fits the mold of a reliever the Orioles feel they can work with. Baltimore watched teams like Tampa Bay pluck guys off the street and turn them into weapons year after year. The Orioles tried their luck with Jacob Webb and Shintaro Fujinami last season, and Cionel Pérez remains a success story entering 2024. </p>
<p id="G5zzJE">The O’s have bullpen spots up for grabs with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin likely forced into the rotation. Ort will compete with newcomers Matt Krook, Tucker Davidson, Jonathan Heasley and a variety of internal candidates for the final bullpen roles.</p>
<p id="zh73Kk">Ort made a strong first impression with an inning against three talented hitters earlier this week. He retired Ronald Acuna Jr. on a broken bat grounder, got Ozzie Albies to fly out, and struck out Austin Riley on three consecutive pitches. The Braves trio represented the most talented opponents Ort had faced in some time, and he likely gained some confidence from the clean frame.</p>
<p id="ioa6Xk">Ort served as an opener for Boston toward the end of June before suffering an injury last summer. The Red Sox placed Ort on the injured list with elbow inflammation on July 7. He made rehab appearances toward the end of September but never returned to the major league roster. </p>
<p id="OoM6T2">Now healthy, Ort should have every chance to compete at a position of need for the Orioles. His ability to develop the cutter, or improve another secondary pitch, will likely make the difference between flying north with Baltimore or joining another organization. </p>
<p id="B5AIeI"><em>Friday: Matt Krook</em></p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/2/28/24083028/orioles-40-man-roster-kaleb-ortAlex Church2024-02-23T09:00:00-05:002024-02-23T09:00:00-05:00Orioles 2024 preseason projections: Ryan Mountcastle
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<img alt="Division Series - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Z8DL-WizZvgduRTFowqfvusgZFI=/0x0:3323x2215/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73159047/1724690794.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Will Ryan Mountcastle perform with enough consistency to beat the projections in 2024? </p> <p id="xfTPgx"><em>Over the next few weeks, Camden Chat writers will be looking at the projected performance for most of the expected regulars on the Orioles roster. We’ll be sizing up what would have to go right for players to beat the projections, or go wrong for players to fail to live up to them, and polling readers for each player.</em></p>
<p id="gge0DV">The Orioles will head to camp with several infield combinations at their disposal. A variety of players could find their way to second base, shortstop or third on any given day, but there’s already a clearly established platoon at first base. Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn will handle the <s>Ryan’s</s> lion’s share of duties for the O’s. </p>
<p id="CqM1a3">Mountcastle entered 2023 as the unquestioned starter at first base. The Orioles brought in several candidates to fill a backup role, but none of the players made the Opening Day roster. O’Hearn outlasted Lewin Díaz, Franchy Cordero and Josh Lester before joining the team on April 13. </p>
<p id="bYu6TZ">Mountcastle did not need competition to thrive early in the year. He blasted his fourth and fifth homers on April 11 and slashed .289/.320/.711 in his first 11 games. Unfortunately, he then proceeded to fall off a cliff. Mountcastle slashed .222/.275/.435 in the month of May with only five homers and 31 strikeouts. </p>
<p id="IYveqm">Meanwhile, O’Hearn hit the ground running. He posted a .937 OPS in May before slashing .309/.338/.529 over 20 games in June. Mountcastle lost his clear advantage on the depth chart, and O’Hearn helped offset a clear dip in production from the position. </p>
<p id="m0VqIJ">The Orioles placed Mountcastle on the injured list in June with symptoms caused by vertigo. The former first-round pick eventually disclosed that dizziness and a light-headed feel made it difficult to pick up the baseball. It was unclear to what extent vertigo played in his struggles, but the Orioles provided Mountcastle plenty of time to get right. </p>
<p id="5Glnyj">Mountcastle returned in the middle of July and looked like a brand new player. He posted a .350/.386/.625 over 15 games in July while mostly starting against lefties. The Orioles ran with a traditional platoon at first, but Mountcastle played his way back to the lineup on a daily basis. He slashed .360/.444/.540 while starting 27 games in August. </p>
<p id="4pE4AW">Mountcastle limped to the finish line in September and his Jekyll and Hyde season ultimately yielded a .270/.328/.452 line. His .779 OPS fell below a ZiPS projected .804. </p>
<p id="RN5JD3">Looking ahead to 2024, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-mountcastle/18373/stats?position=1B">ZiPS projects</a> Mountcastle to slash .258/.313./445 with an OPS of .758. ZiPS projects 23 home runs for 2024 compared to a projected 29 last season. They call for a slight drop in BB%, a slight increase in K%, and five fewer doubles. The projections signal five more home runs (23) with Mountcastle playing 18 more games than last season.</p>
<p id="fpr2Uw">There’s no way of knowing whether O’Hearn can replicate a season that earned him Comeback Player of the Year award votes, but his performance could impact Mountcastle’s playing time and the frequency of favorable matchups in 2024.</p>
<p id="pkC4Dz">Taking all of this into account, do you think Mountcastle will exceed or fall short of the ZiPS-projected .758 OPS for the season?</p>
<h4 id="jq55iP">The case for the over</h4>
<p id="CKlbcb">Mountcastle posted a .779 OPS last season despite the fact that he saw the ball as “pea-sized” for an undisclosed period of time. Injuries are impossible to predict, but a healthy Mountcastle should have the ability to match his OPS from last season. The left field wall remains an obstacle at Camden Yards, but Mountcastle ranked in the 89th percentile of expected slugging (.503) last season. The 27-year-old has always hit the ball hard, and he figures to rank in the top 20 percent of the league in exit velocity once again this year. </p>
<h4 id="gdesLo">The case for the under</h4>
<p id="n1p7ac">Health and playing time are both valid concerns. O’Hearn benefited from the elimination of the shift last season and the rule will remain in place this year. Anthony Santander could see increased time at first base if a young outfielder makes a push for at bats, and Coby Mayo is lurking at Triple A. Ramón Urías, Adley Rutschman and James McCann could all make a guest appearance at the position if Brandon Hyde wants their bat in the lineup. </p>
<p id="vZF5Mq">Mountcastle handled the emergence of O’Hearn with poise last season, but a lack of stability could eventually wear him down. Mountcastle has always been a bit of a streaky player, and a bad month could submarine his stats for the season. </p>
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https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/2/23/24080573/orioles-projections-ryan-mountcastle-zips-2024Alex Church2024-02-21T10:00:00-05:002024-02-21T10:00:00-05:00Kyle Stowers could still have a breakout season if he gets the chance
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<img alt="Pittsburgh Pirates v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KuQpLG-ben_6sDKR0ufPA_T9op0=/0x0:8639x5759/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73154001/1490986065.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Injuries and a rough early start meant that Stowers hasn’t been able to make a good first impression for the Orioles</p> <p id="GmMQ2i">The Orioles’ infield will dominate headlines this spring, as top prospect Jackson Holliday tries to join 2023 Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the dirt to open the year. Still, there’s plenty of intrigue in the outfield as well, where the Orioles have casually built out an impressive list of outfielders behind their big three.</p>
<p id="9ag2kp">Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays remain pillars of Baltimore’s rebuild, but Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad have emerged as the next big thing on grass. The two blue-chip prospects will battle Ryan McKenna and Sam Hilliard for a place on the Opening Day roster, but the Orioles appear to have at least one more outfielder capable of breaking out in 2024. </p>
<p id="eAOdIo">Kyle Stowers essentially lost a year in 2023. He broke camp with the team, struggled right away, suffered a pair of injuries in the minors and never made his way back to Baltimore. He recorded just two hits in 30 at bats, took a fastball to the face at Triple-A, and missed nearly two months with shoulder inflammation. By anyone’s standards, that qualifies as a year to forget. </p>
<p id="mhWaHl">While Stowers suffered, Cowser and Kjerstad made their major league debuts. Cowser, much like Stowers, suffered in his first taste of major league baseball. Cowser finished just 7-for-61 before returning to Norfolk, but Kjerstad showed enough to justify a place on the ALDS roster. Cowser slashed .300/.417/.520 at Triple-A, and did plenty to position himself for another swing at the majors in 2024. </p>
<p id="Xsq9vD">Stowers fell out of the spotlight in Birdland, but does the window really close that quickly? The short answer is no—not if the guy can play. Stowers shined at three levels while earning a share of the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year award with Adley Rutschman in 2021. He fared better than Cowser or Kjerstad with a .253/.306/.418 line over his first 34 games of MLB action in 2022.</p>
<p id="Z67XDa">Cedric Mullins went 6-for-64 during his only taste of the majors in 2019. He responded the following season with a .271/.315/.407 slash line in 2020 and an a 30/30 season in 2021. This organization has the tools and people in place to develop talent, and a 26-year-old Stowers possesses the raw skills of a major league baseball player. </p>
<p id="QoQDDc">Mike Elias referred to Stowers as a player “<a href="https://www.masnsports.com/blog/elias-on-stowers">with his whole career ahead of him</a>” back in December. Elias said the Orioles hoped to get another look at Stowers last season but injuries got in the way. </p>
<p id="3Tpdgv">“Huge power tool. He’s big and athletic, he plays the corners well, he can throw. There’s a lot there, and it’s kind of an under-the-radar person that could be a factor for us this season.” </p>
<p id="xp49kF">Elias credited Baltimore’s farm system when describing how a guy with Stowers’ talent can fly under the radar. It’s been a delight to watch Baltimore produce the top prospect in baseball the last few years, but it’s worth reflecting on the depth at each position. </p>
<p id="scNder">The Orioles could include Stowers as a trade chip in a future deal, but they certainly do not need to move on right now. He represents a quality outfield insurance piece with a pair of options remaining. His raw power, even in an organization that features Kjerstad and Coby Mayo, remains an attractive trait to the front office. </p>
<p id="RaH6vq">Stowers feels like a player that could mash in spring training while making a push for the final roster spot. He may have lost his place at the front of the line, but Stowers should be ready to pounce when an opportunity presents itself. </p>
<p id="tA3b8o">The Orioles provided countless storylines over a division-clinching season last year. The roster is bubbling over with young talent, but don’t forget about Stowers quite yet. </p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/2/21/24078802/kyle-stowers-baltimore-orioles-breakout-candidate-organizational-outfield-depthAlex Church2024-02-07T09:00:00-05:002024-02-07T09:00:00-05:00What’s left to sort out for the Orioles?
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<img alt="Division Series - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VlGx_oqmGF0KvXhK0PCtxi_0SbQ=/0x0:6412x4275/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73118612/1724812661.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Everyone is waiting to find out how the Orioles follow up from stepping into the spotlight last season</p> <p id="XQUE3T">The Orioles, with a freshly secured ace and a new ownership group, are the talk of the baseball world. Yankee fans are jealous, managers are nervous, and even the aliens may be taking notice. </p>
<p id="phN8AK"><em>Washington Post</em> columnist Barry Svrluga went on <a href="https://www.tonykornheisershow.com/">Tony Kornheiser’s podcast</a> this week and said, “If you were dropped from outer space, and plopped down in the United States, and told you should pick one of 30 Major League Baseball teams to be a fan of in 2024, I might pick the <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a>.” </p>
<p id="6lLkYB">That’s an absolute ridiculous sentence. Not because it involves extraterrestrial beings visiting earth, and not because the aliens are being forced to choose a favorite team—It’s ridiculous because Svrluga only went as far to say he <em>might</em> choose the Orioles. Come on, man! Make it official. </p>
<p id="VPYds3">The addition of Corbin Burnes to the roster and (officially soon) David Rubenstein to the ownership group have ignited a fan base already jazzed from last season. Now, with an improved rotation, the Orioles have their sights set on bringing a <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> title back to Baltimore. </p>
<p id="LXPPFi">Unfortunately, as other AL East teams have previously discovered, winning the offseason does not always lead to accolades. The Orioles still face a motivated division and some of the best teams money can buy. Baltimore could always make another move before April, but the roster appears to be mostly set. If that’s the case, what are the biggest questions still remaining in Birdland?</p>
<h3 id="CmO6lo">The Bullpen</h3>
<p id="YYRNYB">There’s no question that DL Hall will be missed. The Orioles never officially threw in the towel on Hall as a starter, but the lefty appeared destined for the bullpen once again in 2024. Hall possesses the type of knockout stuff that can flourish in the back end of a bullpen. Now the Orioles must make do without him. </p>
<p id="1mWmbU">Craig Kimbrel appears set to anchor a unit that still features All Star Yennier Cano and Cionel Pérez. Dillon Tate represents the biggest wild card of the bunch after missing all of last season, but Tyler Wells will have an opportunity to stabilize the group. </p>
<p id="nhCsty">Wells could begin the season in the rotation if Dean Kremer stumbles or another starter suffers an injury. He shined last April with a 2.79 ERA and 0.724 WHIP over four starts and one game of extended relief. </p>
<p id="GokMSV">Wells truly feels like the biggest wild card on the roster. He could join the rotation, serve as a swingman, or close out games and nobody would be bat an eye. Working out of the bullpen could prevent additional arm fatigue, but Wells figures to contribute wherever Brandon Hyde tells him to go. He has the talent and the attitude to handle any role with poise this season. </p>
<h3 id="cAt6mV">The Infield </h3>
<p id="pH23ZZ">While Hall figured to play a significant role for the Orioles this season, the same cannot be said for Ortiz. The Orioles optioned Ortiz for the final time last season on June 26. Ortiz would have battled Jorge Mateo and Ramón Urías for a utility spot, but he appeared set for a return to Norfolk with two options remaining. </p>
<p id="Sczkcv">Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, and Ryan O’Hearn all feel like true locks in 2024. Jordan Westburg should begin the season as the starting second baseman unless Jackson Holliday steals the show. Mateo and Urías likely survive without the presence of Holliday, but the top prospect could push any of those three out of the picture. Westburg holds the highest ceiling but the former first-rounder can still be optioned. </p>
<p id="EPAU6p">It remains to be seen whether the prospect promotion incentive will play a factor with Holliday. The phenom has only 18 games at Triple-A under his belt, but the Orioles have an opportunity to earn draft pick compensation if they promote the favorite for Rookie of the Year from the jump.</p>
<h3 id="41gSq1">Outfield prospects </h3>
<p id="Olgll7">Holliday isn’t the only prospect capable of challenging for rookie of the year. Both Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser will enter 2024 with their rookie status still intact. Whether both begin the season on the major league roster has yet to be determined. The big three of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander all return, but both rookies have the talent to make an impact this season. </p>
<p id="vT62OS">It would likely take an injury for either guy to play everyday in April, but both blue-chippers could force their way onto the field if Hays or Mullins begins to struggle. Cowser failed to make the most of his first opportunity last summer, while Kjerstad rode a late wave onto the ALDS roster. </p>
<p id="lNR3EE">Ryan O’Hearn’s ability to man the corners could allow Mike Elias to roll the dice with only four true outfielders, but Kjerstad and Cowser bring two completely different skill sets to the table. Of course, Elias could take one last look at Ryan McKenna while either of the two wait their turn at Norfolk. </p>
<p id="Gu7Q5L"></p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/2/7/24064178/mlb-baltimore-orioles-win-the-offseason-left-to-sort-out-david-rubenstein-corbin-burnesAlex Church2024-01-24T09:00:00-05:002024-01-24T09:00:00-05:00Will a rookie start meaningful games for the Orioles this season?
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<figcaption>Photo by Bailey Orr/Texas Rangers/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Baltimore has yet to add another starting pitcher. Could a rookie fill the final spot in the rotation at any point this season?</p> <p id="2QrUEQ">The Orioles are not legally required to add a starting pitcher this offseason. What once appeared as a foregone conclusion now feels like a coin flip at best. The rotation could use an upgrade, but <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/1/22/24046662/baltimore-orioles-finished-product-offseason-2024">the Orioles don’t need to be a finished product by Opening Day.</a></p>
<p id="qtwgy9">Mike Elias appears unwilling to surrender monetary or trade capital that would exceed the value of the player joining the team. It’s a practical approach, but one that limits the options for a fifth starter this April. </p>
<p id="7RmjUr">The current candidates have been well documented. The Orioles need to replace all of those innings that Kyle Gibson ate last season. A healthy John Means should go a long way, but Cole Irvin and/or Tyler Wells could be counted on to take the ball every fifth day. </p>
<p id="nQHA6O">The O’s have yet to label DL Hall as a full time reliever. The odds point to the lefty beginning the year in the bullpen, but Hall still has a better shot than Bruce Zimmermann or Keegan Akin. </p>
<p id="BaI2Xg">Hall has one major league start under his belt, but the Orioles have yet to give the once heralded prospect a true crack at the rotation. Hall appears to be the only candidate with little-to-no starting experience. Baltimore does not have a highly-regarded prospect expected to fight for a spot in Sarasota.</p>
<p id="ZDI7wh">Grayson Rodriguez just missed the Opening Day roster last year, but he was always expected to join the club early in the season. Kyle Bradish debuted at the end of April in 2022. Unfortunately, even with a spot up for grabs, the Orioles do not have a starter on pace to break down the door this spring. </p>
<p id="j7OTH7">Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich, Seth Johnson and Justin Armbruester will all have an opportunity to debut this season. McDermott, Povich and Armbruester should all begin the year at Triple-A with Johnson expected to return to Bowie. MLB Pipeline ranks all four pitchers as Top 20 prospects in Baltimore’s system, but no one from the group carries the same expectations that once accompanied Rodriguez or Hall. </p>
<p id="r5peDD">The Orioles named McDermott their Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year award at the end of 2023. The righty pitched to a 3.10 ERA and a 1.151 WHIP between Bowie and Norfolk. </p>
<p id="UvlAgp">McDermott made six starts with the Baysox before taking things to another level with the Tides. He limited opponents to only two runs while striking out 27 batters over a four start sequence. The stretch led to back-to-back International League Pitcher of the Week awards and a bit of buzz in Baltimore. </p>
<p id="kVzLq7">McDermott struck out 152 batters last season, but a 13.8% walk percentage prevented any talk of a September promotion. McDermott pitched in 10 games at Norfolk last season. For comparison, Bradish made 27 appearances with the Tides before his MLB debut. An early season appearance seems unlikely, but McDermott could be the leader for any mid-year opportunities. </p>
<p id="8xXDtJ">Povich slots right next to McDermott with Triple-A experience. Unfortunately, his ERA sat higher at 5.36 over 10 games. Povich especially struggled with runners on base. Opponents saw their OPS jump <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/1/17/24040414/orioles-40-man-roster-rule-5-draft-2024">143 points</a> last season with ducks on the pond. The lefty could stand to add a tick or two on his low 90s fastball, but he holds a starter’s arsenal on the mound. </p>
<p id="CD2t84">McDermott and Povich were both acquired via trade and both slot as mid-tier prospects. Many will link the duo together like Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin back in 2020. Kremer holds a comfortable lead for those keeping score at home. </p>
<p id="iDBYYQ">If McDermott and Povich resemble Kremer and Akin, Armbruester trends more toward the Zimmermann, Mike Baumann, and Alexander Wells type. He could make a spot start or bring a fresh arm to the bullpen, but the 6’5 righty needs an impressive year to prove his worth as a rotation candidate. Armbruester mastered Bowie, but his WHIP jumped to 1.466 at Norfolk.</p>
<p id="fV9WMy">Johnson holds the highest pedigree of the group but figures to be a full year away. The former Top 100 prospect worked his way back from Tommy John and ended the year with his first start at Bowie. The Orioles will ask Johnson to prove it with the Baysox before a potential summer promotion to Norfolk. </p>
<p id="kaaE2t">Baltimore’s lack of action would make more sense if they had a rookie ready to take the reins. Maybe Elias still snags Dylan Cease or another starter on the market. Until then, the Orioles should not expect any reinforcements from the farm this spring.</p>
<p id="8JI78d"></p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/1/24/24048560/orioles-starting-pitcher-rookie-chayce-mcdermott-cade-povich-seth-johnson-justin-armbruesterAlex Church