Camden Chat - All PostsPut a bird on it!https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48285/camden-fave.png2024-03-27T11:00:00-04:00http://www.camdenchat.com/rss/current/2024-03-27T11:00:00-04:002024-03-27T11:00:00-04:00What are your hopes, fears, and predictions for the 2024 Orioles season?
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<img alt="Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zhbg5IbJuII2W_CryHWDfoGhQwE=/0x0:5027x3351/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73236282/1697766130.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>This was fun. The Orioles should do it again except this time win in the postseason. | Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Now that we’ve had a taste of the Orioles being great, can they pull off another fantastic season?</p> <p id="7QDYVX">After the Orioles rattled off an amazing 101 wins in the regular season and then an agonizing three losses to swiftly end their postseason hopes, the offseason has been a mix of hopefulness and trepidation for fans. </p>
<p id="9zl36F">Anyone can be hopeful because, hey, they just won 101 games, every key contributor to that except for Félix Bautista is back, and they added Corbin Burnes on top of that. Anyone could feel trepidation at other times because Kyle Bradish and John Means are starting the season on the IL, and the Orioles are probably due for some regression overall.</p>
<p id="76mB0r">Even with the Bradish setback, this could have been an uninterrupted stream of excitement going towards the regular season. The Burnes addition, the good vibes surrounding the pending sale - possibly finalized as soon as today - to David Rubenstein, and what until a few days ago was assumed to be the debut of Jackson Holliday to begin the season... that would have been a fun trio. It’s still fun without Holliday, but there’s a damper there.</p>
<p id="dm2gQt">All that there is to do now is hope for the best from the players who have made it to the 2024 Opening Day Orioles roster. If the recent past is an indication, this will not be the end-of-season roster, and the organization’s depth will be tested as injuries and poor play strike unexpectedly, or perhaps in the case of Tony Kemp, completely expectedly. Mike Elias might not even use a prospect to fill a midseason hole, like when he brought in Aaron Hicks last year. That one worked out OK, even if I didn’t possibly believe it could when it happened.</p>
<p id="6yxgDy">With all that in mind, what do you hope for from the Orioles this season? What do you think is going to happen when you add a dose of reality to your hopes? I polled some of the other Camden Chat writers on four quick things, and I’m interested in knowing what you think about these as well, so drop in to the comments and let us know:</p>
<ol>
<li id="17RCy5">Your biggest hope for the 2024 team</li>
<li id="DyNaxl">Your biggest concern that would stop the Orioles from repeating as AL East champs</li>
<li id="jMnBIW">Your guess about the O’s final regular season record</li>
<li id="0HzEho">One wild prediction (big or small) that you think will happen with the Orioles this season</li>
</ol>
<p id="LBPUJn">A general note about these predictions: I asked CC writers to submit them before we knew about Jackson Holliday starting in the minors. While most answers were sent to me after that, Alex’s and Tyler’s responses were made without that news in mind. No one except for me had the benefit of knowing about Kemp before responding.</p>
<h4 id="6BWxR7">Biggest hopes</h4>
<p id="NRpdUL"><strong>Alex: </strong>A ring. How does that happen? I’m hoping healthy versions of John Means and Dillon Tate can make a difference.</p>
<p id="aAYH3F"><strong>Tyler: </strong>The organization is at the point where a World Series run should be a realistic goal every season for the next handful of years. Having said that, I would settle for a spot in the ALCS in 2024. The core is strong, they now have an ace, and no one else in the American League feels like a juggernaut. Plus, the depth of the organization makes it possible to reinforce the roster later in the summer, either through promotions or trades.</p>
<p id="fBLcDY"><strong>Paul: </strong>I think it’s high time to break that four-decade championship drought, don’t you?</p>
<p id="UXyjQG"><strong>Stacey: </strong>The World Series is the obvious answer, but my main hope is that this team proves that it was ok that last year’s team flamed out in the postseason. If they play well and get back to the playoffs and look like the team people think they are, I’ll be happy.</p>
<p id="KnXdaK"><strong>Andrea: </strong>The World Series! Why not dream big? Mike Elias & Co. wouldn’t have gone all in for Corbin Burnes if they didn’t think this was achievable. But failing that, winning the AL East. It would be a real coup if this young Orioles roster can do what no other AL East team has done since 2018 and go back-to-back.</p>
<p id="J0OH6f"><strong>John: </strong>Making it to the World Series. It feels like everyone in the American League (except maybe Houston) got worse and the Orioles definitively got better. The Orioles were the best team in the AL regular season last year but ran into a Texas-shaped buzzsaw in the playoffs last year. As long as the big IFs like injuries and random regression don’t go horribly wrong, an AL pennant feels like a realistic hope for this burgeoning bunch. Then once we get to the Fall Classic, anything can happen.</p>
<p id="u9oqkO"><strong>Mark: </strong>I’d like to see the post-Burnes portion of the starting rotation get to a point where we don’t have to spend the whole of the next offseason wondering who the Orioles will sign or trade for because things are already looking pretty good without any additions. That means excellence from at least one of Bradish and Rodriguez, stability from the other of that duo plus Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, and probably a solid debut for one of Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott.</p>
<h4 id="YOWWks">Biggest worries</h4>
<p id="ePP0GC"><strong>John: </strong>Massive dropoff in the bullpen. Despite everything that went wrong in October, I truly believe the Orioles have enough starting pitching depth. What worries me is how Craig Kimbrel lives up to the mountainous task of replacing Bautista at the back end of the Orioles pen. The Orioles have had plenty of dominant relievers in their history, but none matched the dominance and intimidation we saw from Félix last year. Kimbrel is a 9-time All-Star and a good closer in his own right, but recently he’s been prone to volatility.</p>
<p id="Z4Zuhu"><strong>Mark: </strong>The Orioles end up sticking with certain veteran players who aren’t cutting the mustard for too long when there is a prospect ready to go in their place. I think they’ve already shown a tendency towards possibly doing this by how they treated Holliday in sending him to the minors to begin the season. Heck, as of yesterday, it looks like that roster spot is going to freaking Tony Kemp, which is even worse than it going to Tyler Nevin.</p>
<p id="hUDH8O"><strong>Andrea: </strong>This is the result of long years of trauma as an Orioles fan, but I can never not make my worst fears about starting pitching. Worst-case scenario: Burnes continues to lose effectiveness and is “just OK,” Bradish comes back after a while, pitches badly, and then gets shut down for the year, and Means is not himself post-Tommy John. Then again—this is me being a born optimist, in addition to a scarred O’s fan—last year’s rotation was also “just OK,” especially in the first half of the season, and you see how that went.</p>
<p id="mA0ihL"><strong>Stacey: </strong>The starting pitching makes me nervous. Everyone is rightly excited about Burnes but my brain can’t comprehend having a pitcher like that so I’m worried he won’t actually be that good. Bradish’s injury is an unknown, Rodriguez hasn’t been good for a full season yet, and the rest of them are…well, you know. </p>
<p id="1aoCp8"><strong>Paul: </strong>The starting pitching depth, which looked like a strength before camp, could suddenly look pretty shaky if Bradish’s injury turns into a season-ender, if Cole Irvin doesn’t improve from last year, if Grayson takes a step back and/or Burnes looks like just a solid innings-eater rather than a true ace.</p>
<p id="ytyaVC"><strong>Tyler: </strong>I’m worried about the bullpen. Kimbrel will probably be fine, but he’s not Bautista. Dillon Tate missed a whole year, and it feels like they are going to depend on him a lot anyway. I wouldn’t be surprised if any or all of Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez crashed back to earth. There just aren’t many guarantees. Hopefully the trade for Burnes was the beginning of Elias showing that he isn’t afraid of trading younger players in order to get better right now.</p>
<p id="nmyIXe"><strong>Alex: </strong>Kimbrel and/or Cano struggle in late innings. Can the Orioles survive without Bautista?</p>
<h4 id="ozhcxy">Orioles record predictions</h4>
<p id="lz1Vta">A year ago, Camden Chat writers all believed that the Orioles would at least not go back to having a losing team in 2023, but no one guessed anything close to the excellent 101-61 record. Our most optimistic predicter was Alex, at 90-72.</p>
<p id="4roxqi"><strong>Alex: </strong>95-67</p>
<p id="adMxnZ"><strong>Paul: </strong>89-73</p>
<p id="anK1oE"><strong>John: </strong>98-64</p>
<p id="4LNIq4"><strong>Mark: </strong>88-74</p>
<p id="WhqsRP"><strong>Stacey: </strong>92-70</p>
<p id="2xHC4j"><strong>Andrea: </strong>99-63</p>
<p id="WIUzGP"><strong>Tyler: </strong>94-68</p>
<h4 id="L4lnbJ">What the computers say</h4>
<p id="9ITmU4"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings">FanGraphs</a>: 85-77 (last year: 78-84)</p>
<p id="S9BMaT"><a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/">PECOTA</a>: 87-75 (last year: 75-87)</p>
<p id="xSEB0n">A random sportsbook that operates in Maryland: Over/under 90.5 wins (last year: 76.5)</p>
<h4 id="lBqYZA">Wild guesses</h4>
<p id="sFpCD3">Bonus points to Stacey, whose wild guess from a year ago was that Bradish would be the best Orioles starter by season’s end. She’s on a two-year streak of successful guesses. Points also to Tyler and Andrea, who each guessed that the Orioles would have multiple All-Stars last year.</p>
<p id="Z9Tnfa"><strong>Tyler: </strong>Jackson Holliday will not be the Orioles’ highest finisher in Rookie of the Year voting. There is just so much competition within the organization, including Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, two players that have already spent time in the big leagues and could be better positioned at this point in their careers. That doesn’t mean Holliday struggles all that much though. He’s going to be good in 2024! But it could take something great to edge out his talented teammates.</p>
<p id="JHoc7o"><strong>Andrea: </strong>Holliday defies the Orioles’ petty attempts at roster manipulation and wins Rookie of the Year. Am I going out on a limb here? No. Still worth saying? Hopefully! Bonus guess: Rodriguez leads the AL in strikeouts.</p>
<p id="7gvao1"><strong>Stacey: </strong>Kremer won’t last the whole season in the rotation.</p>
<p id="Uy3OOD"><strong>Mark: </strong>Kimbrel blows the save and takes the loss in his first save chance of the season.</p>
<p id="jCq2ut"><strong>John: </strong>The Orioles finally push their chips to the center of the table with a trade at the deadline. The Orioles have reached a point that is inevitable when you draft as well as Mike Elias has—you have too many great prospects and not enough places to play them. After making the offseason trade for Burnes, another big trade should be on the horizon. It could be a trade for another starter, another back-end reliever or even a right-handed power hitter. Whatever Elias & Co. identify as the most pressing need, I expect them to aggressively try and fill that need come July.</p>
<p id="uOhQ27"><strong>Alex: </strong>Small: Gunnar Henderson hits for the cycle. Big: Burnes wins the Cy Young Award.</p>
<p id="5KgJzK"><strong>Paul: </strong>The Orioles will make the most significant acquisition of any MLB team at the trade deadline. (Just don’t ask me which player it is.)</p>
<p id="S6WLZ0">**</p>
<p id="iM8Bln">So that’s what all of us think. How about you? Put your bold guesses below in the comments so that when they come true, you can point everyone back here to when you called it all the way before the season even began. The most successful prediction from <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2023/3/29/23660130/orioles-2023-season-predictions">last year’s commenters:</a></p>
<ul>
<li id="Du8Fr3">John Means has a setback and doesn’t debut until September. (jakenbake)</li>
<li id="Xmrh7L">Honorable mention to the several folks who predicted the Orioles would get Burnes. You were right in the long run, if not for the 2023 season.</li>
</ul>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/27/24112613/orioles-2024-season-predictionsMark Brown2024-03-27T10:00:00-04:002024-03-27T10:00:00-04:00The Orioles look to follow up their best record in 40 years with another exciting season
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<img alt="Washington Nationals v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/f3S41GQxatYar8ENIMfWo7qlxzU=/0x0:5265x3510/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73236096/1703090464.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are going to be an exciting duo in the Orioles lineup for years. | Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>There’s a lot to be excited about with what is to come for the 2024 Orioles</p> <p id="pPcDVy">The 2023 Orioles achieved heights that were beyond even the wildest imagination of fans before last season began. While optimists might have believed the team could achieve its first postseason berth since 2016, the further feats of taking the AL East title for the first time since 2014 and firing off a 100+ win season for the first time since 1980 were unreal until the moment they became real. Not that any of this amounted to even one playoff win.</p>
<p id="Mqpv0f">Last year’s team is going to be a tough act for the 2024 Orioles to follow. The good news is, pretty much everybody who was involved in authoring that amazing 2023 record is back! The only batters to get at least 200 plate appearances last year who aren’t back are Adam Frazier and Aaron Hicks. They are all still young enough to where this is a good thing rather than an automatic criticism. More prospects are coming, including #1 prospect Jackson Holliday before hopefully too long.</p>
<p id="2WQIv4">There’s a bit more uncertainty to contend with in the pitching staff. That’s because we already know that last year’s All-Star closer Félix Bautista will be out for the whole season. There’s also the Kyle Bradish setback to latch onto for anyone who wants to worry. If things go according to current hopes, he could be back in mid-May and hopefully continuing his form from last year. </p>
<p id="cm7kbd">At least these can be balanced out by the aggressive addition of Corbin Burnes to the starting rotation - and, if you’re a believer in him, in chasing-Hall of Fame-caliber closer Craig Kimbrel. Successful pitching staffs often have these kinds of veteran anchors keeping things steady. If Elias has gotten the right guys, Orioles fans will experience what that is like.</p>
<h4 id="gDrZcF">Gunnar Henderson’s follow-up to winning Rookie of the Year</h4>
<p id="em837z">The most recent Orioles position player to win the ROY before Henderson did so last year was Cal Ripken Jr. all the way back in 1982. Ripken, like Henderson, was 22 years old when he won his award. Cal’s follow-up act was to come out for a sophomore season in 1983 where he batted .318/.371/.517 - an .888 OPS as a shortstop at a time when the league average at that position was hitting to a .665 OPS. </p>
<p id="cVqfdb">The glove wasn’t too shabby either, and the combination of these things, plus the bonus of Ripken being on a great Orioles team, led Ripken to an MVP win for that ‘83 season. He’s still the most recent MVP winner for the Orioles, that being his second crown in 1991. The 8.2 bWAR that Ripken was worth in 1983 has not been beaten by any Oriole other than Ripken himself in the 40 years since his first win.</p>
<p id="nPWdO8">Henderson is already a lot closer to that kind of level of performance than Ripken already was in 1982. Ripken’s ROY-winning season came when he was worth 4.7 WAR. Henderson dropped a 6.2 on the American League in his rookie campaign. What could it take to ascend up to 8 WAR or more? </p>
<p id="eejaXf">If Henderson plays mostly shortstop instead of splitting between short and third, that will boost his WAR, assuming he performs at least as well as last year. A good-hitting shortstop is worth more than a good-hitting third baseman. Another 5-7 homers, a few more walks, and a few more steals might get him there. That might give the Orioles a good chance to get the first MVP since Ripken won in 1991 too.</p>
<h4 id="T5HDfk">Burnes chasing the best Orioles pitching season since 2000</h4>
<p id="ir8Lbv">Orioles starting pitchers have not had a whole lot of elite performance ever since Mike Mussina left following the 2000 season. These are the best pitching seasons by bWAR in that time:</p>
<ol>
<li id="HkOTh1">Érik Bédard (2007) - 5.8</li>
<li id="eebjqO">Kyle Bradish (2023) - 4.9</li>
<li id="B0XJX7">Rodrigo López (2004) - 4.8</li>
<li id="HJcDZg">John Means (2021) - 4.5</li>
<li id="cDugD9">(T-4th) Jeremy Guthrie (2010) - 4.5</li>
</ol>
<p id="zXXR3P">The franchise’s Cy Young drought has gone on for even longer than the MVP drought. Not since Steve Stone in 1980 has an Oriole won the Cy. Mussina probably should have won one, but the Cy voters of his career kept coming up with excuses to ignore his greatness, much as Hall of Fame voters later spent several years doing the same before Mussina was inducted. Still: It’s been a while. No one has even come close ever since 2000. Bradish’s fourth place last year and a Zack Britton fourth place finish in 2016 has been it.</p>
<p id="8oTOiY">Burnes being here is exciting in its own right for what it means for the 2024 Orioles. One thing that the team was missing last season, which was part of what was exposed in the postseason series against the Rangers, was a true ace with experience to handle the big moment. It’s also exciting to get a former Cy Young winner providing the kind of quality, hopefully, that hasn’t been seen in an Orioles uniform in more than 20 years.</p>
<p id="rD6569">Not to be a Debbie Downer, but this is by no means guaranteed. Burnes was pretty good last year and would have been welcome on the Orioles. He just wasn’t at his Cy-winning peak, with his strikeout rate having dropped by about a quarter and his walk rate going up by close to 40% from what it was in 2021. 3.5 WAR doesn’t break you into this top 5. Like many Orioles starters last year, Burnes was better in the second half. We can all hope he pitches in 2024 like the second half of 2023.</p>
<h4 id="oY16L9">The prospects are still coming</h4>
<p id="jO4TFA">Adley Rutschman was the #1 prospect in baseball and he has been great since debuting in 2022. Henderson was the #1 prospect a year ago and his rookie season was phenomenal. Grayson Rodriguez delivered on the promise of his hype with a strong second half of last season, and Jordan Westburg arrived and looked like a capable big leaguer too.</p>
<p id="FNYuQI">It’s Holliday’s turn now, and though he won’t be on the Opening Day roster, he certainly ought to spend at least half of this season on the roster, once the team is satisfied it will gain the extra year of control for 2030. Holliday might have managed to generate even more hype than either Henderson or Rutschman did as prospects just because what he’s done is so remarkable for how young he is, still just 20. Playing his way through all four full-season levels a year ago was quite the feat.</p>
<p id="CbtYrV">Holliday is hardly the only one who seems to be on track to arrive this year. Colton Cowser is high on many prospect lists. He’s the only rookie on the Opening Day roster. Spring training returns did nothing to dim anybody’s excitement for big power prospect Coby Mayo. Connor Norby looked like a player who could contribute as an MLBer this season as well. Heston Kjerstad is there in the wings, and maybe even so is Kyle Stowers.</p>
<p id="V9dRQu">These are just the position players who might make a difference this year. The progress on the farm should still be fun for Orioles fans to track through the season. Catcher Samuel Basallo has already generated a lot of excitement and it’s within the realm of possibility he’ll get to, or at least near, #1 prospect status too. Last year’s first round pick Enrique Bradfield Jr. has amazing speed and center field defense.</p>
<p id="cer3rr">Let’s not forget about pitchers. You can start the season with reasonable hopes that at least one of Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, or Seth Johnson will carve out a role by season’s end. With Burnes and John Means becoming free agents after the season, developing a starting pitcher from within the system would be helpful.</p>
<p id="8SQmBp">**</p>
<p id="NQ7KVf">Those are my three big ones. Maybe the most exciting thing about the coming Orioles season is that you can point to almost anything other than the middle of the bullpen and find that exciting. A healthy Cedric Mullins could chase a 20/20 season. Anthony Santander’s contract year has the potential to be interesting. The lineup overall could have at least a league average batter at every position on a regular basis.</p>
<p id="yRaOl2">Excitement about the Orioles doesn’t come naturally to me given their performance for the bulk of my 40 years of life, especially my adult life when it’s been bad except for one five-year stretch plus the last two years. But really: There’s a lot that’s potentially awesome here. I’m even excited that Camden Yards is going to have a couple of specialty food stands in the upper deck, which has not been the usual experience for us 300-level season plan holders.</p>
<p id="6LZe4N">What’s got you excited about the season that’s almost upon us? Let us know in the comments below.</p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/27/24112818/orioles-projected-record-roster-standingsMark Brown2024-03-27T09:00:00-04:002024-03-27T09:00:00-04:00Orioles position preview: Infield
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<img alt="Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Mp60jykKbns0teLeN0_t1b_cMa8=/0x0:8155x5437/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235980/1653222253.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Thank to the ascension of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, and the imminent arrival of Jackson Holliday, the Orioles infield is one of strongest there is. </p> <p id="atppYS">The Orioles as a franchise know a thing or two about great infielders. If you were constructing your Mount Rushmore (Mount "Rutschmore," someday?) of Orioles greats, three of the four spots would be occupied by outstanding former infielders Brooks Robinson, Cal Ripken Jr. and Eddie Murray. Even in more recent decades, the O’s have turned to the likes of Miguel Tejada, Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters and Manny Machado to lead this team. Whenever the Orioles find success, there is almost always a standout infielder at the heart of it. </p>
<p id="ZSolj0">That spirit of infield excellence is alive and well with this 2024 team. With the consensus <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-network-top-10-at-each-position-in-2024">best catcher in baseball</a> as the de facto team captain, the reigning rookie of the year at SS and more up and coming stars on their way, the infield is the heartbeat of the reigning AL East champions. </p>
<p id="vQfuxu">What also makes this Orioles infield great is the promise that the version we see come September and October should be a lot better than the one we see in the opening series vs. Los Angeles. Not only do young stars like Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg have room to improve, but No. 1 prospect in all of baseball Jackson Holliday is down in Norfolk waiting for his call to the big leagues. So, without further ado, we present your 2024 Orioles infield:</p>
<h4 id="ETQsTK">First Base</h4>
<p id="8S9eLI">The pecking order at first base remains unchanged from last season. Ryans Mountcastle and O’Hearn will once again split duties at first, with Mountcastle a guaranteed starter against left-handed pitchers and the two splitting time against righties. It’s worth noting that although Mountcastle missed 27 games last year when he was dealing with vertigo, he still had 118 more ABs than O’Hearn while playing at 1B. Mountcastle is coming off his first Gold Glove nomination in 2023, so if healthy, he figures to earn some ABs against righties on his defensive merits alone. </p>
<p id="dVgN1s">The wildcard in the 1B rotation will be normal RF Anthony Santander. Tony Taters played 72 innings at first last year in an effort to give the O’s more defensive flexibility. With Colton Cowser expected to make the team as the fourth OF, it would make sense to see some lineups with Cowser in RF and two of Mountcastle, O’Hearn and Santander taking ABs at DH and 1B. Last year, the Orioles finished eighth with 0.4 Wins Above Average from their 1B. If we get a full year from Mounty, I’d expect that number to go up in 2024. </p>
<h4 id="jRg4Gw">Second Base</h4>
<p id="AFBHxa"><a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/26/24112749/orioles-news-tony-kemp-signed-roster">The Orioles made a late addition to the mix at 2B</a>, but it wasn’t the one fans were hoping for. The addition of Tony Kemp adds veteran depth to the infield and fills a similar role we saw with Rougned Odor and Adam Frazier the last two seasons. Even though Kemp played more at LF than 2B last year, he figures to replace Kolten Wong as the veteran 2B on the roster. </p>
<p id="iut2f0">What this doesn’t change is who should get the lion’s share of innings at 2B. More than 60% of Jordan Westburg’s ABs came at 2B last season. Early on in this season, Westburg should get comfortable at the keystone. The second-year infielder is all but guaranteed to start at second against lefties after slashing .284/.354/.432 against southpaws in 2023. Westburg is a better defender than Kemp, so he should also see time against right-handers for this defense alone. </p>
<p id="fVOE1t">The elephant at second base is the lack of Jackson Holliday. Watching the No. 1 prospect in baseball sparkle all spring training only reinforced the expectation that Holliday would break camp as the starting 2B. Instead Mike Elias decided the 20-year-old needed more time at the position in Norfolk, so instead we’re left with Westburg and Kemp—for now. Holliday is clearly major-league-ready and we should see him in Baltimore sooner than later. When he’s ready, 2B will be there waiting for him. </p>
<h4 id="wHfPuD">Shortstop</h4>
<p id="fNAjxs">Heading into spring training, there was some doubt about who would be manning SS for the O’s. Would Holliday be in the mix there? Could Westburg see time at short? Would Jorge Mateo reclaim some of the playing time he lost in 2023? Instead, Brandon Hyde put all those questions to bed, officially naming Gunnar Henderson the Orioles starting SS for this season. </p>
<p id="yZZcyy">Henderson’s defensive numbers between SS and 3B were nearly identical last season. However, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year is clearly more comfortable at short and it shows in his offensive performance. When playing 3B last year, he hit .213 with a .711 OPS. When playing SS, those numbers shot up to a .273 average and .827 OPS. Henderson’s rookie performance was reminiscent of a young Cal Ripken; now he gets the opportunity to chase Cal’s legacy as the next great Orioles SS. </p>
<p id="tJRiM9">Mateo will still see time at short and remains the Orioles best defensive option at the position. If Cedric Mullins handles LHPs well enough, he’ll be the everyday CF and Mateo could play at short vs. southpaws. If Henderson handles his less favorable split better, he’ll stick at short regardless of the matchup and Mullins and Mateo will rotate in center. </p>
<p id="sRykkW">Third Base</p>
<p id="sJFl8E">Another ripple effect of Holliday’s demotion is that Ramón Urías will once again be in the Opening Day lineup at 3B. A year ago, Urías looked like he was in the mix to be the Orioles 3B of the future after winning a Gold Glove in 2022 and posting a respectable .720 OPS. However, both his offensive and defensive numbers took a major dip in 2023, and the defensive deficiency was particularly worrying. After he led all AL 3Bs with five Fielding Runs in 2022, that number dipped to -9 Fielding Runs last year. </p>
<p id="5zwz0s">The Orioles clearly believe Urías will bounce back in 2024, and at the very least he has the versatility to play anywhere in the infield. Once Holliday is eventually promoted, Urías’s starting role and roster spot are in jeopardy. Last year’s numbers suggest Westburg’s best position is the hot corner. The Orioles starting infield of the future is Holliday at 2B, Henderson at SS and Westburg at 3B. With some luck, we may see that infield starting in Baltimore by May. </p>
<h4 id="3Z36Rl">Catcher</h4>
<p id="4tEe6B">The at-bat split at catcher should be exactly the same as last season. When you have Adley Rutschman, the best catcher in baseball, you give him as many ABs as he can handle. Last year Rutschman featured in 154 of the O’s 162 games, with 108 at catcher and 46 at DH. Brandon Hyde will undoubtedly like to get 150+ out of his budding superstar again. James McCann is back as Adley’s backup, and like last season he should feature heavily against left-handed pitchers. The Orioles got the catcher formula right in 2023. In 2024, they’ll go with the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. </p>
<h4 id="O5NeEN">The Prospects</h4>
<p id="SbD3s1">Holliday is the only player currently in the minors that is certain to play a major role in Baltimore this year. Connor Norby is the only other minor league infielder that is currently major-league ready, but it doesn’t make much sense to give Norby ABs while simultaneously taking them away from Westburg or Holliday. Coby Mayo is also on the brink of the majors, but it is not yet clear whether he will remain in the infield or move to the outfield.</p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/27/24113173/mlb-2024-season-baltimore-orioles-position-preview-infieldJohn Beers2024-03-27T07:01:11-04:002024-03-27T07:01:11-04:00Wednesday Bird Droppings: Opening Day Eve (maybe)
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<img alt="New York Yankees v. Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zUqlEFiCMkj35w_VBC2HhWnZqC4=/0x1:2846x1898/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73235760/1250896988.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The weather is looking better, Norfolk is full of talent, and new food around town.</p> <p id="RnZ1Y0">Good morning, Birdland!</p>
<p id="ZzlgUU">Baseball season is nearly here! If the weather holds out, Tony Kemp and the Orioles will take on the Angels in an actual regular season game at Camden Yards in just over 24 hours.</p>
<p id="r1GAoQ">The forecast has improved somewhat from earlier in the week. While rain still seems to be an almost certainty at some point on Thursday, it also looks like it will clear up by first pitch. The threat of rain essentially disappears for the rest of the weekend, so should the decision makers need to push Opening Day to Friday, that should be as far as they have to go.</p>
<p id="6KPtqt">Whenever fans do get to the park, they will notice something different in center field. The roof deck above the batter’s eye now has a sponsor. It will be called the “Coors Light Roof Deck,” and they aren’t being shy about the branding.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The center field roof deck at Camden Yards, now sponsored by Coors Light <a href="https://t.co/WweptkIQdu">pic.twitter.com/WweptkIQdu</a></p>— Baltimore Banner Sports (@AllBannerSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/AllBannerSports/status/1772729625174585422?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 26, 2024</a>
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<p id="ZhIP48">Will this give the team the funds needed to remove the advertisements along the baselines? For me, those are a huge eyesore, whereas something like this Coors Light sponsorship fades into the background with all of the other ads in the outfield.</p>
<p id="34y7rO">There are sure to be other new touches around the Yard as well. Hopefully all of us get to see them on Thursday rather than waiting another day.</p>
<p id="gOgmYk"><strong>Links</strong></p>
<p id="YtiKCg"><a href="https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/matt-holliday-orioles-decision-jackson-holliday-triple-a-ROBUIULLLBBKNPQCZZGTUYJNTA/">Matt Holliday questions Orioles’ decision to send son Jackson Holliday to Triple-A | The Baltimore Banner</a><br>What don’t you understand, Matt? He needs to see exactly three weeks of left-handed pitching! Then he will be ready.</p>
<p id="8ss1ZA"><a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/2024/03/27/where-to-grab-a-beer-or-a-snack-near-orioles-camden-yards/">New spots near Camden Yards to grab a beer or a snack on Opening Day | The Baltimore Sun</a><br>Not everyone cares about the actual game of baseball as much as us nerds on this blog. But everyone can get behind good food. Opening Day is a nice time for those two camps to intersect.</p>
<p id="PmnAAo"><a href="https://www.masnsports.com/blog/kemp-settles-in-with-new-team-reunited-with-irvin">Kemp settles in with new team, reunited with Irvin | Roch Kubatko</a><br>The Orioles are slowly acquiring every member of the 2022 <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a>, and if that’s not a strategy for success then I don’t know what is.</p>
<p id="skUYum"><a href="https://www.masnsports.com/blog/norfolk-s-break-camp-roster-includes-three-top-100-and-eight-top-30-players">Norfolk’s break-camp roster includes three top-100 and eight top-30 prospects | Steve Melewski</a><br>The O’s Triple-A team isn’t just full of big league retreads of veterans that never broke through. The talent in Norfolk should be a weapon as the season goes on.</p>
<p id="VtX9fr"><strong>Orioles birthdays</strong></p>
<p id="udAnFY">Is it your birthday? Happy birthday! </p>
<ul>
<li id="PFmQsl">Junior Lake turns 34 today. He played eight games in the Orioles’ outfield during the 2015 season.</li>
<li id="cpv04v">Matt Harvey is 35 today. The once-promising righty ended up on the brutal 2021 O’s team, tossing 127.2 woeful innings (6.27 ERA) that year.</li>
<li id="ZpvAhW">Dave Van Gorder is 67 years old. He came to Baltimore in 1987 and played 12 games as a reserve catcher.</li>
</ul>
<p id="NSXC5o"><strong>This day in O’s history</strong></p>
<p id="vvneot"><strong>1960</strong> - A series between the Orioles and Reds is moved from Havana, Cuba to Miami, Florida. The move is initiated by the Orioles front office, who worried about political unrest on the island.</p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/27/24112881/baltimore-orioles-opening-day-food-projections-2024Tyler Young2024-03-26T15:16:28-04:002024-03-26T15:16:28-04:00What the heck are the Orioles doing messing around with Tony Kemp?
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<img alt="Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ReA2rrYdsjxRMlhVW_ugsh81DQs=/0x0:4500x3000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73234557/1831380504.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Seriously, this guy? | Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>There isn’t, or shouldn’t be, a space on the roster for a lefty infielder who has hit badly for two straight seasons</p> <p id="327Iap">A regular feature since Mike Elias has been the Orioles general manager is a roster move that shakes up the assumed picture within days of Opening Day. It’s happened the past three years before this and he’s done it again two days before Opening Day 2024. The Orioles on Tuesday afternoon announced the signing of veteran infielder Tony Kemp to a major league contract ahead of the start of this season.</p>
<p id="kZqPxR">Kemp, 32, languished as a free agent for much of the offseason before signing a deal with the Reds after spring training had already begun. Cincinnati chose to release Kemp a week ago, putting him back out there for anyone to sign. The Orioles, for reasons that cannot immediately have a rational basis assigned to them, have swooped in to pick up Kemp with days until the season begins.</p>
<p id="JoSqS6">Over the past two seasons, Kemp a lefty batter, has combined to hit .224/.306/.321. In the 2023 season, he rated poorly at just about every aspect of either hitting, fielding, or running. In bWAR terms, that was a -1.0 for the Athletics a year ago. The one area of exception is that he hardly ever swings and misses, and going along with that, he hardly ever strikes out. Kemp struck out in just 9.5% of plate appearances in 2023 - nearly unheard of in today’s game. He walked more often than he struck out.</p>
<p id="KL6Dym">There is some notional positional versatility in Kemp’s profile, as long as you don’t scrutinize it even a tiny bit. While with Oakland in 2022 and 2023, Kemp has played second base and left field in roughly equal amounts. His defensive numbers were not good at either one of these, and with his sprint speed being in just the 23rd percentile, it’s hard to figure he would be a good candidate to play any amount of time in left field at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.</p>
<p id="N9FMyy">The immediate change to the roster with this move is that the Orioles designated infielder Nick Maton for assignment. Maton was already known to have not made the team and the out-of-options infielder was going to have to be DFA’d before the Opening Day roster was set regardless. However, Kemp signing the major league deal presumably locks him in to a 26-man roster spot, which means that someone who we had assumed had made the roster will now probably not make it.</p>
<p id="EsMz35">The most obvious candidate here to be squeezed out now would seem to be Tyler Nevin, just on the basis of Nevin being the last position player who had made it onto the bench. Tough luck for Nevin, who appeared to make the team only for Elias to change his mind a couple of days later because some crummy-hitting, bad-fielding veteran came along who once got drafted by the Astros when Elias was an assistant there. </p>
<p id="otKK10">It’s also possible there’s some kind of surprise, unreported injury to an Orioles infielder - maybe Ramón Urías or Jordan Westburg - that will be revealed with an injured list stint when the Opening Day roster is set. If that ends up being the case, the Kemp addition would at least be somewhat less puzzling. There’s still the terrible recent track record, but at least then his notional value to the roster would be more readily perceived.</p>
<p id="IEKg61">If it turns out that Jackson Holliday did not make the team so that the Orioles could have Urías in the starting lineup and Kemp on the bench, that really sucks. At least when it was Nevin as the bench option, there was the plausible (though ultimately misguided) rationale that Nevin is going to provide some value as a bench bat against lefties. </p>
<p id="2jPI7r">Kemp provides no value as a batter, fielder, or runner, unless Elias manages to shoot the moon with a long-term stinker turning it around like what happened with the team adding Aaron Hicks in the middle of last season. It’s true that Elias has done it before, but I won’t be holding my breath.</p>
<p id="D1oOTJ">Perhaps the silver lining here is that having Kemp on the roster provides an easily-removable guy once the team deems that the already-ready Holliday is service time-ready. The Orioles are not substantially invested either financially or emotionally in Kemp and he can be shuffled off when it’s Jackson time with little heartburn. No, that’s not worth much to me either.</p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/26/24112749/orioles-news-tony-kemp-signed-rosterMark Brown2024-03-26T11:00:00-04:002024-03-26T11:00:00-04:00Camden Chat community introductions (2024 edition)
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<img alt="Division Series - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ehQSNyVmkpc2ReVhFHZW0zkZ8aI=/0x1:5060x3374/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73233800/1724730685.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>It’s too bad that the people in this picture didn’t go home happier. | Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>If you’re brand new, if you’ve lurked forever, or if you’re back after an absence, now’s your chance to say hi</p> <p id="S2OC1m">Hey, you. Yes, you. Are you a lurker who’s been watching Camden Chat from afar, waiting for the right chance to jump in and introduce yourself, only you haven’t found your chance? Have you been here for a little while but you’re not quite sure if anyone has noticed?</p>
<p id="yt1wD1">Here is the one place each year where we are all on equal footing, brand new people and lurkers and the most recognizable veteran community members: The annual Camden Chat introductions.</p>
<p id="E9HCmt">We are now coming on the heels of the Orioles pulling off an improbable and awesome 101-61 regular season record. These are exciting times in Birdland, notwithstanding the lack of Jackson Holliday on the Opening Day roster. The O’s made a big offseason trade in getting Corbin Burnes to bolster the top of the rotation, they signed chasing-the-Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel, and these things are happening on top of nearly the entire squad that won 101 being back.</p>
<p id="NCAFnQ">Possibly as soon as tomorrow, the Orioles are going to have a new owner who is not named John Angelos. This could be another great year. Certainly it should be better than the tanking days. I hope you’ll spend it chatting here with us.</p>
<p id="WlDiI6">If you’re brand new, make sure to go to the upper right of the page to sign up for an SB Nation account first, then come back here and join our site down below in the comments section. You can use your new account to chat on any team site that you like. If you’re going to visit an Orioles opponent, be a polite visitor.</p>
<p id="7Z0sZu">Once you’re set up, head down to the comments to tell us a bit about yourself. Then, next time you come back, just act like you’ve been here forever. As long as you correctly remember to use the reply button to respond to a specific comment when you are talking to someone else, no one will even notice that you’re new. That’s all there is to it.</p>
<p id="tLsfX4">You’re nice enough to read this post, so I bet you’re already nice enough to follow the rules without my telling them to you. Just so we’re all clear, though, you can find <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/community-guidelines"><strong>SB Nation’s Community Guidelines here</strong></a>. Please be excellent to each other as much as you are able, even if you have just read the dumbest comment you have ever seen on the Internet.</p>
<p id="tREqfF">Now that that’s out of the way, we would all like to know about you, not in a creepy way, but in the way that it’s fun to get to know your fellow fans.</p>
<p id="XTrKDV">Where are you from? Where are you now? How did you become an Orioles fan? Who’s your favorite Oriole of the present, if you have one right now? Who’s your favorite Oriole of all time? What’s the thing you’re most excited about for the 2024 Orioles season?</p>
<p id="cNE35k">If you’re still feeling loquacious, and it’s OK if you’re not, here are some more: Why did you choose your screen name? What do you do when you’re not watching baseball? Do you have a favorite story that everyone else in your life is sick of hearing but you want the chance to tell it to someone new? Here’s your place.</p>
<p id="2xwSxq">As for me, I am Mark. I am a Maryland lifer and I probably always will be, although these days I’m closer to the Washington beltway than the Baltimore beltway. In the comments, you’ll see me show up as Eat More Esskay, which has turned into more of a retro ironic name than I ever could have imagined when I picked it over 15 years ago. If I wanted to be current with the newly-announced hot dog brand for 2024, I guess I’d have to be Buy More Berks. It doesn’t have the same ring.</p>
<p id="9Lal83">Thanks to my parents, I have been an Orioles fan since before I was even born. They attended Game 2 of the 1983 World Series, and so did I, although I had a bit of an obstructed view seat: My mom was eight months pregnant at that time. I have loved the Orioles for as long as I can remember. Most of those years have not been very good for O’s fans, but I did meet my wife thanks to both of us being Orioles fans, so, I think that helps balance out the scales a bit.</p>
<p id="C2tzpB">My favorite Oriole of all time is Cal Ripken Jr. The 2131 game where The Streak became a record is the coolest thing to happen to the team in my whole life. Maybe they’ll win the World Series some day and I can have a different answer. My favorite Orioles for 2024 is Gunnar Henderson, because he’s awesome.</p>
<p id="Aoju3a">Here’s my story that people are probably tired of hearing: When I was five years old, a family friend took me and their son to an Orioles game at old Memorial Stadium. This was my first game. I was excited and I talked a lot, almost constantly. As it happened, the seats were really good, right next to the visiting team’s dugout. After a few innings, a player from the other team (the White Sox) came over and said, “Hey, kid, why don’t you shut the hell up and buy me a beer?”</p>
<p id="vkD7gL">He turned and walked off. On the back of his jersey it read “KITTLE,” for Ron Kittle, who ever since that day has been my least favorite baseball player of all time. Thanks to Baseball Reference, I have figured out the game was <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL198905140.shtml"><strong>this one from May 14, 1989</strong></a>, and I guess he had good reason to be feeling cocky because he went 4-5, including a seventh inning, two-run, go-ahead home run. He’s going to have to keep waiting on that beer.</p>
<p id="dnXsxi">So, that’s me. Who are you? If you’re a longtime Camden Chat commenter, thank you for having stuck with us through so many bad seasons to get back to the fun from last year. If you’re brand new, welcome to the party. I hope that CCers old and new will have some more great Orioles moments to talk about as this season goes along.</p>
<p id="Dqk1LF"></p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/26/24112007/camden-chat-community-introductions-2024Mark Brown2024-03-26T10:00:00-04:002024-03-26T10:00:00-04:00Trades that give Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby a path to playing time away from Orioles
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<img alt="MLB: MAR 09 Spring Training - Orioles at Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/c_YBOAqyUOuD3zTVQy5UnnVCPok=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73233633/2064220374.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The young outfielder and infielder seems to be the odd men out, so we cooked up four trades to improve the Orioles and give them the playing time they deserve.</p> <p id="B4JbQU">After last season’s trade deadline, I presented Birdland with <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2023/8/8/23823937/orioles-prospects-trades-mike-elias">a list of four prospects</a> that seemed destined to be future trade chips. These were players who just didn’t have a path to regular playing time on a team pushing for AL East titles and postseason success. </p>
<p id="BepSDI">The Orioles already cashed in on one of those prospects—sending Joey Ortiz (along with DL Hall) to the Brewers to land ace Corbin Burnes. Another of those prospects, Terrin Vavra, has fallen off the Orioles’ radar after a season lost to injury in 2023. The O’s removed Vavra from the 40-man roster in November.</p>
<p id="p28sQp">For the other two trade chips, outfielder Kyle Stowers and infielder Connor Norby, there are still believers in their potential and their path still blocked. Stowers was as hot as any minor leaguer during Spring Training, leading all Orioles with seven HRs and 14 RBIs while slashing .256/.267/.744. After a disappointing 2023, he showed he can hold his own against major league pitching. </p>
<p id="bAvzOE">Norby had a more limited run with the major league team this Spring, going 8-29 while slashing .276/.344/.483 with one home run. That small sample size lines up with what we saw from Norby last season at Norfolk, when the former second-round draft pick slashed .290/.359/.483 while hitting 21 HRs and collecting 92 RBIs. In most organizations, Norby would be a premier infield prospect. With the Orioles, Norby remains blocked by the young trio of Henderson, Westburg and Holliday. </p>
<p id="PMsPQb">Stowers and Norby are already guaranteed to begin another season at Norfolk, so I came up with four trades that could give them a new start in a less loaded organizations. These trades also address some of the biggest holes in this Orioles’ roster and add talent that makes a difference in 2024 while also fitting in with the timeline of Baltimore’s young core. </p>
<h4 id="eHiGnX">Scenario 1: The O’s flip Stowers for help in the bullpen</h4>
<p id="hXFHiw"><em>Trade 1- The Orioles send OF Kyle Stowers, RHP Dillon Tate and OF Hudson Haskin to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP David Bednar. </em></p>
<p id="nCGab8"><em>Trade 2- The Orioles send OF Kyle Stowers, RHP Michael Baumann, RHP Justin Armbruester and OF John Rhodes to the Cleveland Guardians for RHP Emmanuel Clase</em></p>
<p id="97VCvx">Even if we knew we were getting All-Star level performance from Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano in 2024, having a surplus of elite bullpen arms is the ultimate insurance policy come October. At this point, it’s not a certainty what you’ll get from Cano in 2024 and safeguarding against the potential volatility of Kimbrel is worth exploring. Adding high-level depth to the back of the bullpen remains a need for this Orioles team. </p>
<p id="UTrFFZ">Enter Bednar and/or Clase. Both the Pirates and Guardians are fairly well stacked in the infield with established stars and high-upside young players. However, the cupboards are pretty bare for both teams when it comes to their outfields. Stowers would immediately inject some much-needed power into the outfield in either Pittsburgh or Cleveland. </p>
<p id="A6GhBR">Both of these trades are modeled off of the deal that saw Josh Hader go from Milwaukee to San Diego two seasons ago. In that deal, the Padres parted with one of their top 10 prospects, a couple of Major League relievers and a lower level prospect. Although Stowers has already graduated from the prospect ranks, his profile of a major-league ready bat that still has untapped potential fits the “top 10 prospect” mold. </p>
<p id="VOJjFQ">While the Pirates are certainly improving, they still figure to be a year or two away from contention in the NL Central. That means Bednar should be more available and perhaps would require less of a prospect investment from the Orioles in a potential trade. </p>
<p id="nTHSct">Meanwhile, the Guardians find themselves in somewhat of a limbo—not bad enough to be written off as a contender in the AL Central, not good enough to rule out trading away some of their established stars. A year ago, this return for Clase would’ve seemed laughable as he was easily a top 5 reliever in all of baseball. However, the 26-year-old is coming off a season where his strikeout rate and overall effectiveness took a significant dip. As the younger pitcher, he’d undoubtedly still be more expensive than Bednar, but Orioles still could swing a deal centered around Stowers. </p>
<h4 id="erjSyv">Scenario 2: The O’s package Stowers and Norby to make an upgrade in the rotation and bullpen</h4>
<p id="HvRowD"><em>The Trade: The Orioles send OF Kyle Stowers, IF Connor Norby, IF Max Wagner, RHP Tyler Wells and LHP Cionel Pérez to the Miami Marlins for LHP Jesús Luzardo and LHP Tanner Scott. </em></p>
<p id="UYwrnH">If the Orioles want to make another Burnes-sized splash in the waters of the trade market, the Marlins have two players that could fill needs in the starting rotation and bullpen. In 2023, Luzardo emerged from a pack of immensely talented Marlins starters to establish himself as the de facto ace of The Fish’s rotation. That’s not an easy feat when you’re sharing a pitch staff with former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcántara and former top prospects Edward Cabrera and Eury Perez. Luzardo’s success came thanks to one of the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-arsenal-stats?type=pitcher&pitchType=FF&year=2023&team=&min=250">best four-seam fastballs</a> in the big leagues, which he combined with his slider and change-up to rack up 208 Ks in 178.2 innings. </p>
<p id="6WoU6Q">Pairing the hard-throwing lefty starter with an even harder throwing lefty out of the pen would be the perfect one-two combo to upgrade this pitching staff. Scott is a former top prospect with the Orioles who blossomed last year as the Marlins set up man. Scott’s 33.9% K rate last season rivaled the likes of Hader, Kimbrel and Devin Williams to put him just below Félix Bautista at the tippy top of Elite Reliever Mountain. He’d give the Orioles a more consistent, higher upside version of Pérez while also allowing them to play matchups better late in games. </p>
<p id="DyLZuE">Stowers and Norby would most likely walk into Miami and start right away on a Marlins team that‘s sorely lacking offensively. Outside of back-to-back batting champion Luis Arráez and the since-departed Jorge Soler, no Marlins starter had an OPS above .800 last year. Stowers and Norby are both power-first bats that could inject some much needed pop into the Miami lineup. The inclusion of Wells and Pérez would give the Marlins established major leaguers to replace the outgoing stars, while Wagner profiles as someone who could develop into an above-average offensive infielder down the line. </p>
<h4 id="9xgWiq">Scenario 3: The O’s swing for the fences to acquire an All-Star OF</h4>
<p id="rtBSb7"><em>The trade: The Orioles send OF Kyle Stowers, IF Connor Norby, OF Austin Hays and RHP Carter Baumler to the Chicago White Sox for OF Luis Robert Jr. </em></p>
<p id="iUcNne">There’s not really anything the Orioles <em>need </em>to add offensively, but if we’re going to dream big, a prominent right-handed slugger like Robert could take this lineup over the top. <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/2/27/24084333/2024-baltimore-orioles-season-spring-training-lineup">As I detailed previously</a>, this group of position players is very lefty-heavy. They’ll become even more imbalanced when prospects Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad assume bigger roles at the major-league level. Swapping out Hays with fellow All-Star Robert would give the Orioles two players (along with Ryan Mountcastle) who absolutely wear out left-handed pitching. Robert’s plus defense would also translate seamlessly to the cavernous left field at Camden Yards. </p>
<p id="qw4D9I">The rebuilding White Sox would not only get a former All-Star in Hays back, but two players in Stowers and Norby that could help them start to rebuild a largely barren lineup. Moving on from Hays would certainly be painful for all of Birdland. However, the Orioles have reached a point in their development that sending out established starters and fan favorites is the only way to make meaningful upgrades to this team. </p>
<p id="BlPPWh">The trade of Dylan Cease to the Padres is a clear indication that the White Sox are open for business as they embrace the kind of rebuild the Orioles started 5+ years ago. Robert is now the biggest prize on their roster, and at 26 with three more years of team control after 2024, he seamlessly fits the Orioles timeline and team makeup. This would be the kind of move we haven’t seen the Orioles make since trading for Frank Robinson in the 60’s and Reggie Jackson in the 70’s. Adding a player like Robert could be the move that propels this team to a pennant. </p>
https://www.camdenchat.com/2024/3/26/24112284/mlb-trades-orioles-kyle-stowers-connor-norbyJohn Beers2024-03-26T09:00:00-04:002024-03-26T09:00:00-04:00Orioles positional preview: Bullpen
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<img alt="Division Series - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r85xQz3vXe1U9VsavTO3bGeINLY=/0x0:3753x2502/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73233421/1724935765.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>I’m not going to sugarcoat it: there are a lot of question marks</p> <p id="V1bPNz">A strength of the 2023 Orioles was their bullpen, which ranked second in MLB by fWAR. By that mark, only the Los Angeles Dodgers were better. Unfortunately for the 2024 Orioles, the bulk of that value came from Félix Bautista. He and Yennier Cano held the Orioles afloat, a fact that was on obvious display last year on days when neither pitcher was available. </p>
<p id="wkXy8g">This year, to our great sadness, Bautista is nowhere to be found. Cano and Danny Coulombe, who made up most of the non-Bautista WAR last year, aren’t locks to repeat their performances. There are a lot of question marks in the bullpen overall, one that makes a person a lot less confident than they were going into 2023. </p>
<p id="k7zeWE">But even so, GM Mike Elias has proven himself shrewd when it comes to finding value out of nowhere. He found Cano, who had no major league success before coming to Baltimore. Coulombe was a late add, purchased by the Orioles from the Twins on March 27, 2023. He may strike magic again during the season. </p>
<p id="uOt54m">This year’s bullpen will look very familiar to Orioles fans as just one player is new to the organization. The rest have been with the team in some capacity in recent years, from stalwarts to frequent riders of the Norfolk shuttle. </p>
<h4 id="RACPFA">The Free Agent: Craig Kimbrel (RHP)</h4>
<p id="GzEzXK">With Bautista out of commission for the full season due to elbow surgery, the Orioles needed someone to take his place in the bullpen. No one can truly fill his shoes; what he did last year was incredible. But Elias made his best effort by signing Craig Kimbrel, a potential future Hall of Famer. </p>
<p id="FAr3s4">2024 marks Kimbrel’s 15th year in MLB. He’ll turn 36 years old in May, making him the oldest player on the Orioles’ roster. He’s got the pedigree. 417 career saves with an ERA+ of 171. Nine all-star games. 30 games of postseason experience. He’s the real deal. The question is, how much does he have left in the tank?</p>
<p id="yvtAxT">No one is going to confuse 2024 Kimbrel with the guy who led the league in saves for four straight seasons over a decade ago. But he is still an effective late-inning reliever who should be able to convert most save opportunities thrown his way. Just don’t ask Phillies fans about him. </p>
<h4 id="3tqbfq">High-leverage options: Yennier Cano (RHP), Danny Coulombe (LHP), and Dillon Tate (RHP)</h4>
<p id="NuT2ct">Any three of these pitchers could operate as a setup man for Kimbrel or even possibly take over as closer if Kimbrel struggles badly or becomes injured. This is especially true for Cano who has earned the right to be the next man up. </p>
<p id="sfoXST">Dan Szymborski says about Cano in his <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-16-30/">recent FanGraphs story</a> ranking bullpens (Orioles come in 28th - ouch) that his decrease in walks from last year appears to be legit, and as such could cement his place as the real deal. Last year was a dream for Cano, who started the season by going nine games without allowing a hit and 17 games without allowing a run. But while he was dominant, he did hit a few patches of trouble in June and July before bouncing back for a strong end to the season. </p>
<p id="ScrQGF">As for Coulombe, I felt weird putting him in the high-leverage category but the truth is he earned it last year. The lefty appeared in 61 games and combined a good strikeout rate, 27.6%, with a good ground ball rate, 43.7%. It was easily his best season of the nine he has appeared in, which doesn’t generally bode well. Did he improve in a repeatable way, or will he go the way of so many relief pitchers who had one good year?</p>
<p id="rOC40g">And then there is Dillon Tate. When last we saw Tate in the regular season, he had put together a strong season in 2022, the best of his four years with the team. He spent all of last season injured but is by all accounts ready to go. In 2022 he had a 3.06 ERA, a bit high for a relief pitcher, but sported a WHIP of just under 1 and an impressive ground ball rate 59.7%. A return to those numbers and a healthy Tate would do wonders for this bullpen. </p>
<h4 id="fdO15e">The Last Chance Gang: Keegan Akin (LHP), Mike Baumann (RHP), Jacob Webb (RHP), and Cionel Pérez (LHP)</h4>
<p id="WSGSC8">Just one of these players, Keegan Akin, has an option remaining. The rest of the lot have none even though they are the ones you might most want to send down on a trip to Norfolk. If all four are on the team at the end of the year I will be surprised. </p>
<p id="V2satK">It’s easy enough for me to forget that Keegan Akin exists. 2022 was the first year he went full bullpen, previously the Orioles had tried him as a starter. That year was pretty good for him and it seemed like maybe he had a future in relieving. But 2023 was very rough. He put up a 6.85 ERA in 24 games before a lower back injury put him out of commission for the rest of the season. But he had a very nice spring training, allowing just one hit and one walk in 6 games. I have no idea what to expect from Akin but I don’t have a lot of faith. </p>
<p id="aF5hWo">Speaking of not a lot of faith, Mike Baumann. Do you remember that he made 60 appearances for the Orioles last year? Hard to believe. Less than half of those appearances were considered average or above-average leverage, which makes sense when you see that he walked 4.6 per nine innings and had a WHIP over 1.3. Like Akin, Baumann had a nice spring training. I’m hoping for the best for Big Mike. </p>
<p id="TPynIl">I mentioned earlier that Mike Elias is pretty good at pulling pitchers out of nowhere, and it appeared last year that he did just with Jacob Webb. Webb was claimed off waivers from the Angels on August 7th and early returns were great. He put up a lot of zeroes on the scoreboard despite walking 10 batters in 22 innings pitched. He then fell apart in the playoffs, giving up two home runs in two games. Terrible timing. </p>
<p id="OqKGiR">Remember 2022 Cionel Pérez? He was incredible. Unfortunately, that didn’t translate very well into 2023. The first two months of the season were very tough for Pérez. In 24 games he allowed an opponent OPS of .948. That’s awful. His final four months, which included 41 games, were much improved. Batters hit just .202/.308/.210 against him in that span. He was very good at keeping the ball in the park, too. He gave up just two home runs in the season and both came in the same game. </p>
<p id="idZlEU">Of all the pitchers in this section, I have the most faith in Pérez. But if he begins this season as poorly as he began 2023, it will be hard to justify keeping him around as the Orioles try to contend. </p>
<h4 id="DbZ4iu">The Minors Guys</h4>
<p id="brh3oY">There aren’t too many pitchers to get excited about who could come up from the minors. On the 40-man roster there is Bryan Baker, Jonathan Heasley, Matt Krook, Kaleb Ort, Nick Vespi, and Bruce Zimmermann. If none of those names excites you, that makes two of us. </p>
<p id="HrlDcY">Big Wandisson Charles, who isn’t on the 40-man but who has big talent, could make a push this year. He ended last year with Triple-A Norfolk and could be worth keeping an eye on. </p>
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